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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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234 FXUS62 KMLB 272000 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 400 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 357 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Current-Friday... Convection had an earlier start once again today, with scattered showers and isolated lightning storms streaming across western Florida from the GOMEX this morning, with some of the activity pushing into east central Florida, mainly into Lake/N Volusia. The east coast sea breeze has form from Cape Canaveral southward this morning and is currently trying to move inland. The sea breeze is forecast to get pinned along the I-95 corridor once again today due the stronger West/southwest flow. Scattered showers and lightning storms will continue to stream across east central Florida this afternoon ahead of the west coast sea breeze, with the highest coverage (PoP 60 percent) of showers and storms this afternoon and evening occurring along the I-95 corridor as boundary interactions with the east coast sea breeze occur. Some storms may be strong. Main storm threats will be frequent lightning strikes, and gusty winds of 40-45 mph. Locally heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches will also be possible in any stronger or slower moving storms. Hot and muggy conditions persist this afternoon, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices of 102-107 degrees. Any lingering activity will dissipate or move out of the local area by sunset. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions over land areas tonight. Seasonable and humid conditions tonight, with low temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Friday, upper level trough across Quebec/NE US will shift further east and northward, pulling a surface boundary across the SE US which will gradually fade through the day, with a weak quasi- stationary front persisting north of Florida. Locally, west to southwest flow will persist on Friday as the ridge axis of the Bermuda high resides south of the region, although wind speeds will be slightly weaker than today. Due to the weaker surface flow, the east coast sea breeze should be able to move in farther inland, with the sea breeze collision occurring further inland of I-95. Scattered showers and storms will develop out ahead of the west coast sea breeze once again on Friday and move east-northeast across east central Florida and move offshore through the afternoon and early evening. An increase in coverage of showers and storms (PoP 50-60 percent) will be possible later in the afternoon and into the evening with any sea breeze or outflow boundary collision. Main storm hazards will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40- 45 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Hot and humid conditions will persist Friday, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. Peak heat indices will range from 102-107 degrees. Saturday-Sunday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic shifts back northward into the region this weekend, which will lead to a weak S/SW flow early on Saturday, becoming S/SE Saturday late morning, and continuing on Sunday. East coast sea breeze will develop early in the afternoon and move gradually inland, with late afternoon/early evening sea breeze/outflow boundary collisions and greater storm coverage favored over the interior into the weekend. Moisture remains high enough, with PW around 2-2.3 inches, for scattered to potentially numerous showers and storms each day. PoPs range from 50 percent along the coast to 60 percent generally west of I-95. Gusty winds, lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall will continue to be the main threats from any stronger storms. Highs will range from the low 90s along the coast, and low to mid 90s across the interior, with peak heat index values still around 102-107 through the weekend. Overnight lows remain in the 70s. Monday-Thursday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Ridge aloft centered over the south-central U.S. early next week will expand eastward across the southeast states and Florida through the middle portion of next week. At the surface, another weak front moves into the southeast U.S., with ridge axis either near or shifting just south of Lake Okeechobee. This will lead to a prevailing low level S/SW flow across the area through this period, which will continue hot and humid conditions and provide enough moisture for at least scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms from early to mid week. PoPs continue around 50-60 percent each day, with highs continuing in the low to mid 90s. Peak heat index values look to continue to generally range from around 102-107 for much of the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 357 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Current-Tonight... Surface ridge axis will remain across the Florida Straits into tonight. SW flow has shifted SE/S this afternoon behind the sea breeze, and will shift back to SW overnight, with speeds generally around 10 KT. Seas will be 2 ft across the nearshore waters and 2-3 ft across the offshore waters. Scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible this afternoon through the overnight, especially in the offshore waters. Friday-Tuesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Ridge axis begins to shift back northward, but remains south of the waters on Friday before moving back northward into the coastal waters this weekend through early next week. Boating conditions remain favorable as wind speeds continue around 5-10 knots, becoming onshore each afternoon as the sea breeze forms and moves inland. Seas around 1-2 feet, up to 3 feet offshore at times. Scattered offshore moving storms will continue to be possible each afternoon and evening, mainly on Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Iso/sct convection has initiated generally west of SFB/DAB early this afternoon, which will bring very brief vis/cig reductions to interior terminals over the next few hours as activity drifts eastward. By 19Z, coverage is anticipated to increase, with a more robust boundary collision occurring near MCO/ISM later this afternoon. The line of scattered showers and thunderstorms will move towards the coast, bringing MVFR/IFR reductions to TIX south to SUA through 23Z with erratic gusty winds anticipated. Opted to add TEMPO mention for all sites with the 18Z package, especially based on current radar trends. Activity will move offshore by 00Z. Outside of convection, VFR conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 93 76 92 / 20 60 30 60 MCO 76 93 77 92 / 10 60 20 60 MLB 76 92 77 90 / 30 50 40 50 VRB 74 93 75 91 / 30 50 30 50 LEE 77 93 78 93 / 10 60 20 60 SFB 76 93 77 93 / 10 60 30 60 ORL 77 93 78 92 / 10 60 20 60 FPR 74 93 75 90 / 30 50 30 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Watson AVIATION...Schaper