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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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290 FXUS62 KMLB 230804 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 404 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 404 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Today-Monday...GOES-16 PWAT analysis indicates a distinct moisture boundary across northeast Florida stretching from Cedar Key through southeast Georgia. Deep moisture continues to reside south of this boundary with PWATs observed between 2-2.2" across much of the peninsula. High coverage of showers and storms is forecast each afternoon (60-70%) dominantly driven by diurnal heating and mesoscale boundaries. Poor mid-level lapse rates and minimal wind shear will aid in limiting overall storm intensity. Periods of heavy rainfall and occasional to frequent lightning strikes continue to remain the primary hazards early this week. Large amounts of available moisture combined with weak steering flow could allow for hourly rainfall accumulations between 1-3" causing ponding on roadways and localized flooding of low lying and urban areas. High temperatures are forecast near seasonal values today in the upper 80s along the coast and lower 90s inland. A few degrees warmer into Monday, ranging the low 90s area wide. Conditions remain muggy with peak heat index values between 98-103 today and 100-105 tomorrow. Tuesday-Saturday...Moisture becomes reinforced on Tuesday as an area of low pressure lifts off the northeast U.S. coast and an accompanying surface boundary sinks towards Florida. Mid level high pressure across the southern U.S. retreats westward into mid week as an area of troughing digs into the southeast U.S. Another boundary sinks toward the state into Thursday, keeping PWATs elevated into late week. In response, coverage of afternoon showers and storms remain high (60-70%) each afternoon through the mid and long term forecast. A diurnal sea breeze development is expected each afternoon. Light west to southwest flow will generally favor the inland extent of the west coast sea breeze through late week, and any sea breeze collisions are favored across the central or eastern side of the peninsula. Guidance then suggests a transition to easterly flow into the weekend. The greatest hazards with any developing storms continues to be occasional to frequent lightning strikes and periods of locally heavy rainfall. High temperatures remain steady through the period, warming into the low 90s each afternoon. Peak heat index values will generally range between 102-106 through late week. && .MARINE... Issued at 404 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Today-Monday...High pressure over the western Atlantic will promote south to southeast winds across the local waters. Seas of 3 ft gradually subside to 2 ft into Monday night. Scattered to numerous lightning storms are forecast. Tuesday-Thursday...Light southwest to west flow develops over the local Atlantic waters by Tuesday. Winds back southward each afternoon with the development of the east coast sea breeze. Seas remain 2 ft through the period with occasional seas to 3 ft well offshore. High coverage of showers and lightning storms continue each day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 204 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Keeping TEMPO MVFR CIGs/VSBYs for FPR & SUA a little while longer based on radar trends and will keep MLB/VRB VFR with VCSH. This activity should diminish through 08Z but pop-up SHRA possible even over the interior through sunrise. On Sun, very moist S to SE flow 7-10 knots with scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA. Most of the time VFR CIGs are forecast but TEMPO IFR/MVFR conds will occur in and storms. Confidence is not high on when to insert TEMPO groups but added them from 19Z-22Z at MCO/SFB/ISM with VCSH after 00Z. Will prob add a similar TEMPO to LEE and DAB with the 12Z TAF package. Less confident about coastal terminals MLB-SUA and will maintain liberal usage of VCSH/VCTS terms there for now. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 74 93 76 / 60 40 70 20 MCO 90 75 92 76 / 60 50 70 20 MLB 88 75 91 75 / 60 40 70 30 VRB 89 73 91 74 / 50 40 60 20 LEE 92 76 93 77 / 60 40 70 20 SFB 91 76 93 76 / 60 40 70 20 ORL 91 76 93 77 / 60 40 70 20 FPR 89 73 91 73 / 60 40 70 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Law AVIATION...Kelly