827
FXUS62 KMLB 142336
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
736 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 735 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Activity is winding down across east central Florida this evening,
with a few lingering showers and storms expected to diminish over
the next couple of hours. VFR conditions are forecast through the
period, with winds becoming light and variable overnight. Some
guidance is indicating the potential for patchy fog near DAB and
low CIGs across the terminals tonight, but confidence was not
there to make any sites MVFR. Will continue to monitor through the
overnight and amend as needed. Winds pick back up out of the
east- southeast around 5 knots at 15Z. VCSH and VCTS possible from
TIX southward along the coast after 18Z and across the interior
terminals after 20Z. Activity diminishing along the coast between
21-23Z.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 435 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Currently-Tonight... Low pressure (invest 90AL) over the western
Atlantic continues to move farther away from the eastern coast of
Florida. A frontal boundary stretches across central Florida with
moisture advecting north across south-central Florida from an
area of low pressure to the southwest over the western Carribean.
Coverage of showers and storms are forecast to increase into the
late afternoon with scattered to numerous showers and isolated to
scattered lightning storms forecast (PoPs ~30-60% north of the
boundary and 50-70% to the south). The main hazards associated
with lighting storms will be moderate to locally heavy rainfall
with 1-3 inches of rainfall possible with any slow moving or
repeated rounds of showers and storms, occasional to frequent
cloud to ground lightning strikes, and gusty winds up to 40mph.
Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to mid 70s
overnight under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Patchy fog is
forecast over Volusia and northern Brevard county where visibility
will have the potential to drop to 1 mile or less, mainly between
5am and 9am.

Saturday.... A similar forecast to Friday is expected over east
central Florida as a weak frontal boundary slowly sags south
across south-central and into southern Florida Saturday evening.
Scattered showers and storms are forecast to develop into the
afternoon (PoPs ~ 60-70%) as winds veer onshore and the east coast
sea breeze pushes inland with boundary interactions expected over
the western interior of central Florida, as well as the Treasure
Coast. Drier air to the northeast will keep rain chances lower
(30-40%) over Volusia, Seminole, and northern Brevard counties.
The main hazards will be occasional to frequent lightning,
moderate to locally heavy rainfall at times (locally up to 1-3"),
and wind gusts up to 30-40mph. A Marginal Risk for Excessive
Flooding has been outlooked over most of east central Florida with
minor flooding possible (5% risk), mainly over areas that have
observed recent high rainfall amounts. Winds are forecast to veer
east-southeast into the afternoon at 5-10mph. Afternoon highs in
the mid 80s to low 90s are forecast with heat index values in the
mid 90s to low 100s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s are forecast.

Sunday (modified previous discussion)... High pressure will begin
to build off the eastern US coast over the Florida peninsula on
Sunday. This will in turn push the deeper moisture south and
westward, away from the local area. Light and variable winds
Saturday morning will become E/SE and increase in the afternoon
behind the sea breeze, with winds veering onshore and increasing
on Sunday as the high pressure builds over the area. Models
continue to disagree about how much dry air will filter across the
northern portions of the CWA (north of the stationary front),
with the ECM remaining the drier solution. Have maintained
lowering rain chances through the weekend from what the NBM model
has. Thus, PoPs 30-60 percent on Sunday, with the highest rain
chances occurring across the south. Forecast PW values range from
1.3-1.6" across the north, and 1.7-1.2" across the south, which
will support scattered showers and isolated to scattered
lightning storms.

Due to the drier air filtering across the area, and the deeper
moisture being pushed southward, ECFL is not in an ERO for Sunday.
Other storm hazards will continue to be occasional to frequent
cloud to ground lightning strikes and gusty winds.

Temperatures will be average to slightly above normal for this time
of year, with the northern sections continuing to be slightly
warmer. Skies will be partly sunny across the north and partly to
mostly cloudy across the south. Afternoon highs will be in the
low to mid 90s across the north and upper 80s to low 90s across
the south. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

Monday-Thursday (previous discussion)... Upper level high
pressure off the eastern US will continue to build over the
Florida peninsula as it shifts north and eastward across the
eastern CONUS through mid- week. An upper level low will push
westward across the Florida peninsula late in the period, causing
the ridge to retreat slightly northward. Locally, onshore flow
will remain in place through the period as high pressure
dominates. Wind will be breezy, with speeds generally 10-15 mph.
Much like with Sunday, due to the high pressure building southward
over the FL peninsula, the deeper moisture will remain south and
west of the local area, as drier air filters across the area.
Uncertainty remains in overall rain chances through mid week as
models remain in slight disagreement. The GFS remains the wetter
solution as the ECM shows slightly drier air filtering in across
the area. The NBM continues to have categorical PoPs. Thus, have
limited the PoPs over the local area. Have maintained PoPs 50-70
percent on Monday, and 50 percent area wide Tue-Thur. Temperatures
will be seasonable through the period, with afternoon highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s, and overnight lows remaining in the 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 435 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Today-Tonight (modified previous discussion)... Invest 90L will
continues to move N/NE away from the eastern US coast. The
Stationary front will remain in place across central Florida. Seas
1-2ft across the nearshore waters, and 2-3ft in the offshore
waters. East winds at 5-10kts are forecast to veer offshore
overnight. Scattered to numerous offshore moving showers and
scattered lightning storms will continue this evening as deep
tropical moisture remains in place, especially from Cape Canaveral
southward.

Saturday-Tuesday (modified previous discussion)... The stationary
front will remain in place across central Florida through the
early part of the weekend before gradually fading into the latter
part of the weekend. Invest 90L will continue to shift N/NE
through Sunday, remaining off the eastern US coast. High pressure
will build off the eastern US coast over the Florida peninsula on
Sunday and continue through early week. Westerly winds on Saturday
will veer E/SE in the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze
forms. Onshore flow will develop on Sunday and continue through
early week as the high pressure builds over the local area. Breezy
conditions are forecast early next week, with speeds generally
10-15 KT will 15-20 KT possible in the offshore waters by Tuesday
afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning
storms will continue each day, especially across the southern
waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  90  74  90 /  10  30  10  30
MCO  74  90  75  90 /  20  60  20  50
MLB  74  88  75  88 /  30  60  30  50
VRB  73  88  74  88 /  40  60  20  40
LEE  75  92  76  93 /  20  60  10  40
SFB  74  92  74  92 /  10  50  10  40
ORL  76  92  76  91 /  20  60  20  50
FPR  73  87  73  88 /  40  60  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Tollefsen