538
FXUS62 KMLB 160713
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
313 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...Lower Precip Chances Through Tuesday...
...Deteriorating Marine/Surf Conditions Next Week...
...Breezy/Gusty Onshore Winds Next Week...

Current...Again, quiet on the radar front with mostly dry conditions
over land. The pressure gradient remains relatively weak as winds
range from light/variable (LV) to calm. Humid conditions persist
with temperatures and dewpoints in the 70s. Satellite imagery
shows some mid/high level cloudiness streaming west-east overhead.

Today-Tonight...The weak pressure pattern continues for one more day
across the area. L/V morning winds will gradually become onshore
areawide and the ECSB will develop and push inland again today.
Drier air will follow in behind the sea breeze as deepest moisture
this afternoon/evening pools across the western peninsula. Drier
overall today, though we do carry 20-30pct across coastal counties
and 30-40pct over the interior and this may be generous numbers
for most. Deepening ERLY flow develops across ECFL with storm
steering flow also directed westward. Max temps in the M-U80s at
the coast with near 90F to L90s into the interior. Peak heat
indices will average 96-102F, with highest readings inland.
Overnight mins mild and mainly in the 70s with conditions humid.

Mon-Mon Night...Deep ERLY flow continues with warm temperatures
aloft. PWAT values average 1.25-1.40 inches (below normal). Again,
30pct for PoPs which seems generous, as high pressure aloft grows
stronger along the mid Atlc and southeast U.S. ERLY winds will
become breezy/gusty and slowly diminish into the evening, though
will likely remain elevated overnight along the coast. Max temps
in the M-U80s at the coast and near 90F to L90s inland. Warm and
sultry conditions persist overnight with mins in the 70s.

Tue-Sat...The strong mid-level high pressure along the Atlc Seaboard
is forecast to continue to strengthen, while its center pushes
slowly northward. Closer to home an area of low pressure over the
western Atlc takes aim towards the FL east coast. Slow development
of this system is possible around mid-week as this feature moves
rapidly W/NW. PWATs remain unimpressive until later on Wed as they
increase with approach of the aforementioned low. The moist
conditions remain in place through late week. PoPs will likely
fluctuate, especially mid-late week - depending on position and
strength of the low pressure. For now, we carry 40pct for Tue,
50pct for Wed, and 60pct Thu-Sat. Some heavy rainfall will
accompany the low, but it is too early to pin down areas and how
much. The deeper onshore flow will continue into Wed, then will
transition with the low pressure (position pending) Wed night into
Thu, before becoming onshore again (for now) late Thu into the
weekend. Expect breezy/gusty (onshore) winds through at least mid
next week. Winds may remain elevated during the nighttime,
especially along the coast.

Thanks in part to the onshore flow, max temperatures will be
seasonable through the period, with afternoon highs in the U80s to
L90s (interior), and overnight lows remaining mild in the 70s.
Conditions could become increasingly humid on the backside of the
low once it passes and we will need to watch heat indices as they
increase for Fri/Sat.

Surf conditions will deteriorate much of this week as persistent
moderate to strong onshore winds will also build ocean swells.
Numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents will develop at
area beaches along with rough surf. Water runup to the dune line,
along with beach erosion may occur during the high tide cycle
from mid to late week. Coastal Flood/High Surf advisories may be
necessary during this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Today-Tonight...The weak pressure gradient continues across the
local waters early this morning with L/V winds under 10 kts.
However, an NE/ENE flow will develop with speeds increasing to
8-13 kts by afternoon. ERLY winds will increase tonight to 12-17
kts areawide as the pgrad begins to tighten. Seas 2-3 ft, but
begin to build later tonight up to 4 ft over the Gulf Stream.

Mon-Thu...The pgrad continues to tighten this week as onshore winds
winds increase to 15-20 kts into Wed, perhaps stronger Wed aftn-Thu
with the approach of low pressure over the western Atlc, which
does have some potential to develop by around mid-week as it
ventures quickly toward the FL peninsula. Seas build 4-5 ft on Mon
and up to 6 ft offshore Mon night, 5-6 ft areawide on Tue and up
to 7 ft offshore Tue night. Seas forecast 6-8 ft Wed and perhaps
up to 12 ft well offshore Wed overnight. Max seas could approach
14 ft offshore by early Thu. At the very least Cautionary
Statements next week will turn into Small Craft Advisories, and
perhaps some "tropical" wording mixed in by around mid-week
should the aforementioned low develop. Shower and isolated
lightning storm chances will go up by mid-week across the local
waters as moisture values increase.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light and variable winds
will become northeast by early morning and increase to 5-10 KT.
Due to deep easterly flow and drier air filtering in, SHRA/TSRA
looks to favor west Florida. Thus, have maintained VCSH for
interior sites starting at 20Z for any westward moving convection
that forms along the sea breeze. Northeast winds will become light
after sun down.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  76  88  76 /  30  10  40  20
MCO  91  75  88  75 /  40  20  30  20
MLB  88  77  88  77 /  30  20  40  30
VRB  88  76  88  76 /  20  20  40  30
LEE  92  76  91  75 /  40  10  30  10
SFB  91  75  89  75 /  30  10  30  20
ORL  91  75  89  75 /  40  20  30  20
FPR  88  76  87  76 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Watson