421
FXUS62 KMLB 191733
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
133 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Increasing shower and storm coverage is forecast through the
remainder of this afternoon and into the evening hours as the east
coast sea breeze moves inland and collides with the west coast sea
breeze. Activity has already started across the Treasure Coast
terminals, with TEMPOs between 18-21Z. Guidance is hinting at a
later collision across the interior terminals, so have started
TEMPOs later, between 22-01Z. The TEMPOs are for VIS and CIG
reductions to MVFR due to TSRA, though drops to IFR cannot be
ruled out. Will continue to monitor and amend as needed. Activity
will linger into the evening as activity gradually moves offshore,
with conditions improving after 00Z. VFR conditions are forecast
through the overnight hours with winds becoming light and
variable. Winds pick back up out of the NE after 15Z between 5 to
10 knots.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Satellite imagery this morning is displaying mostly clear
conditions across east central Florida. Temperatures are climbing
into the low 80s, on the way to another afternoon in the upper 80s
to low 90s. The 10z sounding from Cape Canaveral depicted PW
around 1.75, though recent GOES-derived PW indicates some drier
air (PW 1.5") pushing in across the northern part of the forecast
area. This will continue through the day with the greatest
moisture focus from Orlando/Cape Canaveral southward. As a
result, CAMs are most consistent with developing isolated to
scattered showers and lightning storms from the Space/Treasure
Coasts to the Orlando metro this afternoon. Gusty winds, lightning
strikes, and brief heavy rainfall will be the main concerns. This
is reflected well in the PoP forecast, so no major changes were
made in this update.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Today-Tonight... Lingering showers/storms over the Treasure Coast
waters are expected to weaken this morning. Generally 3-4 FT seas
today with winds becoming NE 5-12 KT north of Sebastian Inlet and
more variable to the south. Scattered showers and storms are
forecast today especially south of Cape Canaveral. Some of the
storms could be offshore-moving and gusty.

Friday-Monday... 2-4 FT seas persist through at least Saturday
before building to 3-5 FT from Sunday into Monday as northeast
onshore winds increase to 8-15 KT and a northeast swell enters the
local Atlantic. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be more
isolated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  88  74  88 /  10  20  10  30
MCO  74  90  74  90 /  30  20   0  30
MLB  74  88  74  88 /  30  30  10  20
VRB  73  89  74  89 /  30  40  10  20
LEE  74  90  73  90 /  20  20   0  20
SFB  73  89  73  89 /  20  20   0  30
ORL  74  90  74  90 /  30  20   0  30
FPR  72  88  73  89 /  30  40  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaper
AVIATION...Tollefsen