Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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210 FXUS62 KMLB 161501 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1101 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1101 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Low pressure northeast of the area designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 will move west-northwest, and is forecast to make landfall along the South Carolina coast later today into this evening. Frontal boundary connected to this system remains across south central Florida, with a lighter northerly flow across much of the region. Some moistening will occur today, with PW values increasing to 1.6-1.9", so convective coverage should increase slightly today from what occurred yesterday, with scattered showers and storms developing into the afternoon and evening with the inland moving sea breeze. PoPs range from 40-50 percent near to north of the I-4 corridor where moisture will be greater and 30 percent farther south. Lingering dry air aloft and cooler temps at 500mb (around -7 to -8C at 500MB) combined with a passing mid level disturbance may lead to isolated stronger storms capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 40-50 mph and locally heavy rainfall. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and peak heat index values of 98-104. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 744 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Stratus leading to some IFR/MVFR cigs and spots of MVFR visibilities will continue through early this morning, primarily near to north of a line from KMCO to KTIX. However, should see gradually improvement back to VFR across these sites toward or just after 15Z as this cloud deck lifts and breaks up with daytime heating. Light morning flow will gradually transition onshore along the coast in the afternoon. This NNE/NE flow will move into the interior by late in the day or early evening. ISOLD-SCT showers and lightning storms are forecast in the afternoon/early evening, but not confident in any TEMPO groups just yet. Will continue to handle with "Vicinity" wording for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 445 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Today-Tonight...Long period onshore swell from PTC8 will continue to promote poor to hazardous boating conditions. Early morning observations from NOAA Buoy 41009 and NOAA Buoy 41070 have shown seas increasing near 7 ft, and the Small Craft Advisory across the offshore waters has been expanded to include nearshore Volusia and nearshore Brevard. Small craft should exercise caution across the nearshore Treasure Coast. Seas are forecast to subside to 5-6 ft nearshore late this afternoon, while hazardous seas of 7-8 ft continue into the late evening offshore. Winds will remain light throughout the day, generally remaining 10 kts or less. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast. Tuesday-Friday...Seas subside Tuesday, settling around 3-4 ft Wednesday afternoon. Variable winds continue into late week while remaining 10 kts or less. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lighting storms are forecast each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 73 90 73 / 40 20 40 20 MCO 90 75 92 75 / 40 20 50 10 MLB 90 76 90 75 / 30 20 40 30 VRB 92 75 90 74 / 30 20 50 40 LEE 89 73 90 74 / 50 20 30 10 SFB 89 73 91 74 / 40 20 50 10 ORL 90 75 92 75 / 40 20 50 10 FPR 92 75 90 73 / 30 20 50 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT Tuesday night for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ550- 552. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ UPDATE...Weitlich AVIATION...Sedlock