Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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649 FXUS62 KMLB 260124 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 924 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 833 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR conditions prevail outside of convection. TS INVOF most inland terminals this evening on a downward trend and should dissipate by around 02Z. Debris -SH could linger a few hours later, especially KTIX-KSUA, but should remain VFR and don`t even have VCSH mentioned in some cases. Generally quiet overnight. Little bit of uncertainty how the sea breezes and TS will evolve Wednesday. Light westerly flow will push the WCSB quickly across the peninsula while holding the ECSB near the I-95 corridor. How much TS develops along the WCSB in the late morning-afternoon will have a significant impact on timing of TS at the inland terminals, which could be as early 17Z. Less TS on the WCSB would keep timing closer to the currently advertised 19Z VCTS. TS develops on the ECSB INVOF the coastal terminals around 18Z, eventually getting overrun by inland storms with all this activity pushing offshore in the evening. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Current-Tonight... The east coast sea breeze has formed this afternoon and is pushing inland. Isolated storms have formed along the sea breeze already, mainly north of Titusville with scattered activity to the north and west of the CWA. Temperatures as of 3 PM are in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices up to 105 degree. The upper level low pressure along the NE US coast today will continue to shift east and northward into tonight, dragging a surface boundary across the southeast US and off the Atlantic seaboard. Generally light W/SW flow as the Bermuda high axis shifts further eastward, with the winds shifting east/SE behind the sea breeze. The sea breeze collision is forecast to occur across the interior this afternoon, where the highest coverage of showers and storms (PoP 60-70 percent) is located this afternoon and into early evening. PoP 40-50 percent along the coast through the evening hours, since steering flow should be light enough to limit a higher coverage of showers and storms being pushed back towards the coast. However, with stronger winds aloft, debris clouds/precip of taller storms might get pushed back towards the coast. Similar to yesterday, main storm hazards for any storms today will be locally heavy rainfall, occasional to frequent lightning strikes, and gusty winds up to 35 mph. Slow moving to stationary storms will be capable of a quick 1-3" of rain in a short 60-90 minute time frame. Temperatures will continue to be hot and muggy today, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices ranging from 102 to 106 degrees. Any lingering activity should dissipate or move out of the local area by midnight, with mostly dry conditions expected over land tonight. Winds will become light tonight with winds shifting back to the W/SW. Overnight lows will be warm and muggy, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Wednesday... Bermuda high pressure axis will continue to shift south and eastward through the period. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms are expected to form once again in the afternoon and continue into early evening. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form and push inland in the afternoon. However, due to slightly stronger westerly winds, the sea breeze collision might occur closer to I-95, with higher coverage of storms being pushed back towards the coast. Similar to the last couple days, the main storm hazards will continue to be heavy rainfall, occasional to frequent lightning strikes, and localized gusty winds up to 35 mph. Hot and muggy conditions will continue, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. Peak heat index values will range from 102 to 106 degrees. Thursday-Friday... (Modified Previous Discussion) The Bermuda high axis is extended westward and will shift southward across the Straits of Florida. Westerly flow prevails locally, favoring a sea breeze collision across the central or eastern side of the peninsula each day. There remains some uncertainty in the amount of moisture and overall storm coverage through the period. Global models continue to suggest the potential for a drier airmass to advect from the Gulf, but little has been resolved when comparing model runs from 24 hours ago. A GFS solution continues a much more aggressive, drier solution (PWATs ~ 1.5-1.7). The ECMWF holds onto higher moisture as a boundary sags across the southeast U.S. Have held PoPs steady with this forecast package (60%) and will continue to monitor moisture trends. Afternoon temperatures remain in the low 90s each day with peak heat index values up to 105. Saturday-Tuesday...(Modified Previous Discussion)Light southerly flow develops into the weekend while the western extent of the Atlantic ridge holds influence. A typical diurnal pattern of afternoon showers and storms continues. High temperatures warm into the low to mid 90s each day. && .MARINE... Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Current-Tonight... Surface ridge axis will continue to shift slightly south and eastward. SW flow today has shifted SE/S this afternoon behind the sea breeze, and will shift back to SW overnight. Wind speeds will remain light, with 10 KT or less. Seas will be 2 ft across the nearshore waters and 2-3ft in the offshore waters. Scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible this afternoon through the overnight, especially in the offshore waters. Wednesday-Sunday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Light offshore flow shifts SE/S each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops. Background flow then becomes southerly on Saturday and Sunday, backing onshore with a developing sea breeze in the afternoon. Winds remain light through the period, generally 10 KT or less, increasing slightly on Sunday with speeds around 10 KT. Seas of 2 ft persist with occasional seas up to 3 ft across the far offshore waters. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms are forecast each afternoon and early evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 93 75 94 / 30 70 40 60 MCO 75 93 77 93 / 50 70 30 60 MLB 75 92 75 93 / 30 70 40 60 VRB 74 91 74 93 / 40 70 40 60 LEE 76 93 77 93 / 40 70 30 60 SFB 76 93 76 94 / 50 70 30 60 ORL 76 93 77 94 / 50 70 30 60 FPR 74 91 74 93 / 40 70 30 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Watson AVIATION...Haley