Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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664 FXUS62 KMLB 250234 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1034 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1009 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The east coast sea breeze over-performed a bit, pushing winds to 15-20 mph with higher gusts for a few hours after 5 PM. This was higher than pretty much all guidance, with only the NBM 90th percentile coming close, so updated winds through the evening with that plus a few upward nudges, then diminishing through the late evening and early overnight, which has been working out pretty well. Conversely, PoPs under- performed due to high bias in the NBM. Updated PoPs with latest high-res guidance which brought them down a fair amount to 30-50 pct in the late afternoon, decreasing through the evening to 20-30 pct across the interior by 10 PM, and a few showers lingering after midnight before a mostly dry rest of the night. No changes to the rest of the forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 808 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Mainly VFR conditions Tuesday morning. TS/SH has underperformed for the most part this afternoon, so pulled TEMPOs and stuck with just VCTS through 02Z at the inland terminals (VCSH to 04Z at KLEE) for TS/SH INVOF the sea breeze collision between KLEE and KMCO/KISM. On the other hand, ECSB overperformed a little briefly increasing winds to 15-20 kts late this afternoon, which have settled to 10-15 kts, and are still expected to become light overnight. Light SW-W flow Tuesday will favor the WCSB and slow the ECSB. Coastal terminals turn onshore around or a little afternoon, while inland terminals remain somewhat light and variable. Slightly higher coverage of TS/SH forecast INVOF the inland terminals Tuesday, with bulk of activity staying west of the coastal terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Current-Tonight... Surface ridge axis will remain over the local waters while shifting slightly south and eastward. Winds will be southerly flow into this evening, with winds shifting southwest overnight. Speeds will generally be 10 KT or less. Seas will be 2 ft across the nearshore waters and 2-3ft in the offshore waters. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible through the overnight, especially in the offshore waters. Tuesday-Saturday... (Modified Previous Discussion) A surface ridge axis across the western Atlantic is nudged eastward on Tuesday. In response, southerly flow develops an offshore southwest to west component into mid week. Seas will generally be 2 ft with seas up to 3ft well offshore. Deep moisture will continue to promote higher coverage of showers and lightning storms across the local waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 93 75 92 / 20 60 30 70 MCO 77 93 76 92 / 30 70 30 70 MLB 76 91 75 91 / 10 70 30 70 VRB 74 91 75 91 / 20 70 30 70 LEE 77 95 77 93 / 40 70 30 70 SFB 77 94 75 93 / 20 70 30 70 ORL 77 94 77 92 / 30 70 30 70 FPR 74 90 75 91 / 20 70 30 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Haley AVIATION...Haley