Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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925 FXUS62 KMLB 241948 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 348 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...Hot and Muggy Conditions Through the Week... ...Higher Coverage of Showers and Lightning Storms Each Day... Current-Tonight... The east coast sea breeze has formed and is pushing inland this afternoon. Scattered showers have formed along the Treasure Coast along the sea breeze, as well as the Atlantic waters, mainly from Sebastian southward. The first lightning strike across ECFL of the day was observed across Martin county this afternoon, shortly before 3 PM. Current temperatures are in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices ranging from 97-105 degrees. Upper level low pressure across southern Quebec/Ontario today will shift south and eastward into the northeast US through tonight. This will drag a surface boundary southward across the eastern US. Locally, winds have become E/SE behind the east coast sea breeze, with speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts up to 20 mph at times. Deep moisture remains over the local area, with GOES-16 satellite imagery showing PW values between 1.9-2.0" this afternoon. Warm and muggy conditions today, with afternoon highs generally in the low 90s, with mid 90s possible across the north where lower cloud cover is forecast. Peak heat indices will range from 102-107 degrees. Higher coverage of showers and lightning storms this afternoon and evening (PoP ~60 percent), mainly across the western interior. The east coast sea breeze will continue to push inland, with the sea breeze collision forecast to occur across our far western interior and into the western portion of central Florida by late afternoon into the early evening. Main storm threats will be locally heavy rainfall, occasional to frequent lightning strikes, and gusty winds up to 35 mph. Slow moving to stationary storms will be capable of a quick 1-3" of rain in a short 60-90 minute time frame. Locally higher amounts could cause ponding of water on roadways and minor flooding of urban and low lying areas. Convection should dissipate or move out of the local area before midnight, with isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms remaining possible over the Atlantic waters through the overnight. Otherwise, expect mostly dry conditions over land areas through tonight. Winds will become light overnight, shifting to the W/SW. Temperatures will continue to be muggy, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Tuesday... Upper level low pressure across the northeast US coast will move offshore during the day, dragging a surface boundary across the southeast US and off the Atlantic seaboard. At the surface, the Bermuda High axis just off the eastern Florida coast will shift eastward, veering the winds W/SW. Locally, deeper moisture will remain in place with forecast PW values ranging from 2.0-2.2". Wind speeds will generally be 5-10 mph, allowing for the east coast seabreeze to form and push inland in the afternoon. The sea breeze collision is forecast to occur across central Florida, however slightly more eastward than previous days. Higher coverage of showers and lightning storms once again, with PoP 60-70 percent areawide. Main storm threats will be heavy downpours, occasional to frequent lightning strikes, and wind gusts up to 35 mph. Warm and humid conditions will persist with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. Peak heat indices will range from 102 to 107 degrees. Wednesday-Monday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Another moisture boundary is forecast to sink across the southeast U.S. Thursday into Friday. However, its local influence may become limited as waves of drier air move eastward from the Gulf. An ECMWF solution attempts to hold onto higher moisture values with modeled PWATs between 1.9-2.1" into the weekend. The GFS indicates a larger influence from the drier airmass with PWATs ranging 1.5-1.7" across the peninsula Friday afternoon. Regardless, a typical summer time pattern is expected to prevail supporting scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms into the weekend (60-70%). Southwest to west flow remains in place through late week. A more dominant west coast sea breeze will promote a sea breeze collision across the central or eastern side of the peninsula through late week before winds shift south to southeast into Saturday. Weak, unidirectional wind profiles and poor mid level lapse rates should aid in limiting overall storm intensity each afternoon. Primary storm hazards include localized heavy rainfall, lightning strikes, and gusty winds. The high temperature forecast remains steady in the low 90s through late week, with low to mid 90s into the weekend and early next week. Peak heat index values are generally expected between 102-107 degrees. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Current-Tonight... Surface ridge axis will remain over the local waters while shifting slightly south and eastward. Winds will be southerly flow into this evening, with winds shifting southwest overnight. Speeds will generally be 10 KT or less. Seas will be 2 ft across the nearshore waters and 2-3ft in the offshore waters. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible through the overnight, especially in the offshore waters. Tuesday-Saturday... (Modified Previous Discussion) A surface ridge axis across the western Atlantic is nudged eastward on Tuesday. In response, southerly flow develops an offshore southwest to west component into mid week. Seas will generally be 2 ft with seas up to 3ft well offshore. Deep moisture will continue to promote higher coverage of showers and lightning storms across the local waters. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 222 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 TAFs begin with VCTS/TEMPO TSRA (18Z-01Z) and MVFR CIGs in storms. Afternoon/evening scat`d storms are forecast as the ECSB moves inland and converges with the west coast sea breeze/outflow boundaries. Shower/storm chances diminish after sunset and end by midnight. E/SE winds at 5-10kts veer S/SW overnight and then back onshore into the afternoon Tuesday at 5-10kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 93 75 92 / 20 60 30 70 MCO 77 93 76 92 / 40 70 30 70 MLB 76 91 75 91 / 20 70 30 70 VRB 74 91 75 91 / 20 70 30 70 LEE 77 95 77 93 / 60 70 30 70 SFB 77 94 75 93 / 30 70 30 70 ORL 77 94 77 92 / 40 70 30 70 FPR 74 90 75 91 / 20 70 30 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Watson AVIATION...Fehling