Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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485 FXUS62 KMLB 290519 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 119 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 119 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 IMPACT: - Numerous afternoon and evening storms expected on Saturday; VIS restrictions to IFR & frequent lightning near storm cores. VFR conditions persist early this morning at all terminals. If skies sufficiently clear, will watch for patchy ground fog. Another round of storms is forecast today with 40-60% coverage near the coast increasing to 60-80% over the Greater Orlando terminals (KMCO). Storm initiation after 29/17Z with greatest coverage 29/19Z-23Z. TS TEMPOs in place for a majority of our terminals save for DAB/VRB/FPR/SUA where sea breeze may penetrate just enough inland to keep more widespread storms just to the west. Close call on that; will monitor guidance trends in future TAF updates. Lt/vrb winds through mid-morning, becoming E/ENE this afternoon < 12 KT. && .UPDATE... Issued at 930 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 A pretty rainy afternoon for east central Florida. Radar estimates show just about everyone got a 1/4 inch of rain, with the exception of a band from Deltona to Holopaw that saw lower amounts. Many areas got 2 inches or more, and upwards of 4-5 inches of rain fell across much of the southern counties. Made some adjustments to PoPs through the evening based on trends and latest HRRR, keeping them 50-60 pct across the interior through about 9 PM. Rest of the forecast held up well with no significant changes needed. Still seeing deep convection down south in Palm Beach County, which could creep its way back north into Martin through the next couple hours, so keeping PoPs down there 30 pct until midnight. Otherwise, the last of the debris showers should dissipate by 11 PM (most sooner), with mostly quiet conditions the rest of the night. && .MARINE... Issued at 342 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Current-Tonight... Surface ridge axis will shift slightly northward across South Florida into tonight. S/SW flow has shifted SE/S this afternoon behind the sea breeze, and will shift back to S/SW overnight, with speeds generally around 10 KT. Seas will be 2 ft across the nearshore waters and 2-3 ft across the offshore waters. Scattered offshore moving showers and lightning storms will be possible this afternoon and evening with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible through the overnight, especially in the offshore waters. Saturday-Wednesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic moves back northward across the waters into the weekend and early next week. Southerly flow each morning will become onshore into the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze will be able to form each day and push inland. Sea breeze generated showers and storms each afternoon should largely remain over land areas, but isolated to scattered showers and storms will still be possible over the coastal waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 76 91 76 / 60 40 40 30 MCO 91 76 91 76 / 70 30 60 30 MLB 90 76 90 76 / 60 30 40 30 VRB 90 76 90 74 / 50 30 40 30 LEE 93 77 93 77 / 70 30 60 30 SFB 92 76 92 76 / 70 30 60 30 ORL 93 77 92 76 / 70 30 60 30 FPR 90 76 90 74 / 50 30 40 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Haley AVIATION...Heil