802
FXUS62 KMLB 220153
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
953 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE... (Through Saturday)
Issued at 953 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

KEY MESSAGES:

- Rich tropical moisture remains overhead through the weekend,
  sparking scattered to numerous (50-70%) showers and storms,
  especially in the afternoon and evening hours. There is a
  Marginal Risk for locally excessive rainfall.

- High temperatures ranging from 88-94F, yielding max heat indices
  of 100-107F this weekend.

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms (50-70%) are also
  expected early to mid next week.

Tonight... Downpours are still percolating out there this evening,
particularly in a zone from Tampa Bay to Daytona Beach, clipping
the western Orlando suburbs. This is near a surface trough axis
emanating from weak low pressure just NE of Jacksonville (Invest
92L). Deep moisture convergence is occurring in an uncapped
environment with PW`s ~ 2.25". Guidance isn`t handling this
activity particularly well, but the trend should be for lessening
coverage overnight. However, localized pockets of heavy rain and
isolated lightning strikes are possible in this area through
around midnight. South of Orlando to Titusville, shower chances
are quite low (20%) through the night. Overnight low temps will
remain balmy, in the mid 70s.

Saturday... Mid-level ridging over the ArkLaTex will act to hold
this axis of deeper moisture over the state through the weekend.
Only isolated morning showers are expected, however the latest HREF
guidance remains bullish on sea-breeze driven showers and storms
over the interior by afternoon and early evening. Tall, skinny
CAPE profiles and warm cloud depths to above 16 KFT will support
very efficient rain processes. Localized flooding of poor-draining
and urban areas is possible where storms recur. A marginal risk
(5%) of excessive rainfall is in place for the interior, and HREF
members indicate a 20-40% chance of 2"+ / 6HR rain potential.
This includes the Greater Orlando area. Storm chances range from
70% from Lake/Orange Co`s south to Lake O, decreasing to around
50% along the coast. Before the storms pop, highs will reach the
89-94F range, hottest near Greater Orlando to Clermont where heat
indices from 102-107F are expected due to the intense humidity.
While just below our "Heat Advisory" criteria, folks working or
enjoying the day outdoors should seek frequent water breaks in the
shade.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 953 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Overnight... Showers are ongoing to the north of Cape Canaveral,
and this trend should continue over the next few hours as we
reside just south of weak low pressure. Winds will remain SE from
8-15 KT, with seas 3-4 FT nearshore, 4-5 FT in the Gulf Stream.

Sat-Tue (previous discussion)... Improving boating conditions
this weekend into early next week, with south to southeast winds
remaining under 15 kts this weekend, then veering more SW early
next week. A sea breeze near the coast should develop each aftn,
however. Seas 3-4 ft becoming 2-3 ft through the period. Greater
daily shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected, especially
early next week, with increasing chances for offshore- moving
convection each afternoon and evening.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (Sunday-Thursday)
Issued at 334 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Patchy fog is forecast Sunday morning mainly between 5am and 8am.
Patchy ground fog will have the potential to reduce visibility to
a half mile or less at times mainly over the Treasure Coast
before dissipating into the mid morning hours. Upper level ridging
stays in place across the southern tier of the U.S., weakly
influencing the overall pattern here in Florida. H500 falls across
the southeast and Mid Atlantic are expected Sunday into Monday as
a low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes region.
Surface flow will remain southerly, backing southeast during the
afternoon as the sea breeze forms. Light flow becomes increasingly
SSW through midweek next week. With PW around 2"+ through much of
this period, expect at least scattered to perhaps numerous
showers and storms each afternoon and evening as sea breeze and
storm-scale boundary collisions occur over the peninsula. PoPs go
up to 60-70 percent later in the weekend and next week. The NBM
remains too high with PoPs (a common bias at least here in FL) so
we continue to cap forecast values. Regardless, this stretch of
days could provide some additional much needed rain for parts of
the area. Temperatures through the extended stay warm, generally
in the low 90s. Heat indices approach 100-107 Sunday and then the
102-110 range Monday and into midweek. Nighttime temperatures will
stay in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 645 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

VFR conditions expected outside of showers/storms. Showers near
the Orlando terminals slowly diminish through this evening, with
rain chances around 20% overnight through the morning hours.
Plentiful moisture and a return to a more typical sea breeze
circulation should promote another round of storms, most prevalent
near and west of MCO, tomorrow afternoon. This necessitates TS
TEMPOs for a few of our inland terminals after 22/19-20Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  90  74  91 /  50  60  50  70
MCO  76  92  75  91 /  30  70  50  70
MLB  77  89  75  89 /  20  50  30  60
VRB  77  90  75  90 /  20  50  30  50
LEE  77  93  76  92 /  40  70  60  70
SFB  76  92  75  92 /  40  60  50  70
ORL  77  92  76  92 /  30  70  50  70
FPR  76  90  74  90 /  20  50  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Heil
AVIATION...Heil