249
FXUS62 KMLB 141741
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
141 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Expect inland-moving sea breeze to trigger isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the interior this afternoon,
potentially affecting KLEE-KMCO-KISM corridor for a few hours
after 19Z. Given a slightly drier airmass across our northern
terminals, coverage not expected to be high enough there to
introduce TEMPOs at this time. Greater coverage of showers and
storms expected from KVRB-KSUA over the next several hours
(through 22Z or so) where deeper moisture resides. Otherwise,
broken to overcast cirrus deck (FL250-300) will be spreading from
south to north through the day.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Invest AL90 is now to the northeast of Florida over the western
Atlantic near the South Carolina coast. A frontal boundary extends
from the low across east central Florida over Brevard and Osceola
county. The highest moisture is to the south of the boundary
which is where the highest rain chances is expected into the
afternoon. Meanwhile, GOES-16 satellite and water vapor imagery
show moisture being advected northeast over south Florida
associated with an area of low pressure over the western Carribean
and southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Guidance indicates that moisture will increase into the afternoon
across central Florida from the southwest and as the east coast
sea breeze pushes inland and boundary interactions occur. Coverage
of showers and storms are forecast to increase into the afternoon
with scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms
forecast (PoPs ~30-60% north of the boundary and 50-70% to the
south). The main hazards associated with lighting storms will be
moderate to locally heavy rainfall with 1-3 inches of rainfall
possible with any slow moving or repeated rounds of showers and
storms, occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes,
and gusty winds up to 40mph. Afternoon highs are on track to reach
the upper 80s to low 90s under partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies.
Winds are forecast to veer onshore into the afternoon at 5-10mph.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 539 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Today-Tonight... Invest 90L will continue to move N/NE today and
remain offshore the eastern US coast. The Stationary front will
remain in place across the northern portion of central Florida.
Winds will generally be Westward today before backing onshore with
the formation of the afternoon east coast sea breeze. Seas 1-2ft
across the nearshore waters, and 2-3ft in the offshore waters.
Scattered to numerous offshore moving showers and scattered
lightning storms will continue today, as deep tropical moisture
remains in place, especially from Cape Canaveral southward.

Saturday-Tuesday... The stationary front will remain in place across
the northern portion of central Florida through the early part of
the weekend before gradually fading into the latter part of the
weekend. Invest 90L will continue to shift N/NE through Sunday,
remaining off the eastern US coast. High pressure will build off the
eastern US coast over the Florida peninsula on Sunday and continue
through early week. Westerly winds on Saturday will veer E/SE in the
afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms. Onshore flow will
develop on Sunday and continue through early week as the high
pressure builds over the local area. Breezy conditions are forecast
early next week, with speeds generally 10-15 KT will 15-20 KT
possible in the offshore waters by Tuesday afternoon. Scattered to
numerous showers and scattered lightning storms will continue each
day, especially across the southern waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  90  75  89 /  10  40  10  50
MCO  76  89  75  89 /  20  80  20  60
MLB  74  88  75  88 /  20  70  30  60
VRB  73  88  74  88 /  30  70  20  50
LEE  76  93  76  92 /  20  70  10  50
SFB  74  92  74  91 /  10  60  10  50
ORL  76  90  75  91 /  20  80  20  60
FPR  73  88  73  88 /  40  80  20  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Fehling
AVIATION...Ulrich