Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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606 FXUS62 KMLB 180549 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 149 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 127 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Showers and storms continue offshore, though land areas remain dry as of around 6Z. Light winds will be primarily westerly through at least mid-morning, before the east coast sea breeze develops and pushes inland through the afternoon, backing winds onshore. At this time, LEE looks to remain westerly through the period. VCSH developing along the sea breeze around 16-18Z at the coast. Then, VCTS included at all sites by 20Z. The highest coverage looks to be along the coast, with TEMPOs included through 1Z there. TEMPOs also included for ISM/MCO/SFB, though coverage is forecast to end there first. Winds becoming light and variable again after sunset. && .UPDATE... Issued at 951 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Showers and lightning storms are holding on a little longer than expected across the southern counties thanks to multiple boundary interactions near the frontal boundary meandering across Central Florida, and the trough aloft associated with a mid-level low over the Southeast. Had a couple stronger storms develop during the evening, and a small outbreak of hook-shaped showers and storms which had little to no rotation, but so far haven`t seen any reports beyond a few gusts to 25-35 mph. Most of this activity has dissipated or pushed offshore, but a few linger on, including a few that managed to recently develop in Lake County, which should dissipate by midnight. Made a couple changes to PoPs through the evening to match trends, but the rest of the forecast remains in good shape. && .MARINE... Issued at 410 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Now-Tonight...Improving boating conditions are expected with seas decreasing to around 3-5 ft late tonight. Winds remain light, becoming offshore overnight around 5 kt. Isolated showers and lightning storms are possible, capable of producing gusty winds and locally higher seas. Wednesday-Saturday...Light offshore flow becomes onshore behind the east coast breeze each afternoon through Thursday, before more persistent ENE wind resumes Friday into next weekend. Seas are forecast to be favorable for boating, around 2-4 ft. Daily rain and lightning storm chances will continue, especially Wed-Thu. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 73 90 73 / 60 40 40 10 MCO 92 74 91 73 / 40 30 50 20 MLB 90 73 89 74 / 60 50 50 50 VRB 91 73 90 72 / 60 50 60 50 LEE 91 74 90 73 / 40 20 40 10 SFB 91 73 91 73 / 50 30 50 10 ORL 92 75 92 75 / 40 30 50 20 FPR 91 73 90 72 / 60 50 60 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Haley AVIATION...Leahy