735
FXUS62 KMLB 221839
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
239 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...There is a high chance (80%) for tropical development in the
northwest Caribbean this week. It is too early to determine exactly
what, if any, impacts this may bring to East Central Florida,
however heavy rainfall is becoming an increasing concern. Continue
to monitor the forecast for updates...

Current-Tonight...Scattered light-moderate showers continue to
spread onto the coast and further into the interior this afternoon
with adequate moisture and surface heating, in spite of warm H500
temps between -3C and -4C. A diffuse sea breeze will push well
inland during the day. Expect convective activity (perhaps an ISOLD
lightning storm) to push thru the interior this afternoon/early
evening - with showery precip ending up across WCFL. We will
retain a small PoP along the Space/Treasure coasts overnight.
Primary impacts from any heavier shower or isolated storms
include occasional lightning strikes, gusty winds locally to 30-40
mph, and brief downpours.

Mid-level ridging along the Texas coast continues to expand across
the GoMex and FL peninsula promoting subsidence aloft across the
region. Weak surface ridging continues north of ECFL. Gusty NE winds
will diminish to light during the evening. Overnight mins in the L-
M70s, perhaps a few U70s along the immediate coast, with conditions
remaining muggy.

Mon-Tue Night...Weak surface high pressure drifts into the western
Atlc off of the Carolinas. Aloft, high pressure will transition
across the GoMex and FL peninsula, ending up off of the FL east
coast by the end of the period. This as an upper trough dives
southward across the Plains with a closed low developing over South
Dakota ending up across the ArkLaTex region by sunrise Wed morning.
This feature will be responsible for eventually directing the
anticipated tropical system that will be between the Yucatan
peninsula and Cuba late Tue overnight. Temperatures aloft remain
fairly warm ~ -3C to -4C with limited instability and below normal
deep layer moisture across ECFL during this time. As such, have kept
PoPs well below seasonal, 10-30pct, highest well south of Orlando.
Most locations will remain dry. Highs expected in the U80s near
the coast with 90F to L90s into the interior. Overnight lows in
the L-M70s, except U70s along the coast with conditions remaining
humid.

.Previous Extended Forecast Discussion...

Wed-The Weekend...There is considerable uncertainty in the remainder
of the forecast. The aforementioned cutoff low looks to pass through
the Ohio Valley, dragging a cold front through the eastern US. Local
weather during this timeframe will be dependent on the speed and
location of this feature, as it will affect the timing and track of
a tropical disturbance forecast to develop in the northwest
Caribbean mid to late week. The National Hurricane Center has given
this disturbance a 80% chance of tropical formation over the next
7 days, (40% next 2 days). Models differ on the timing and track
of this system, but residents and visitors should stay up to date
on the latest forecast. It is still too early to discuss specific
impacts, if any, this system could bring to east central Florida.
However, deeper moisture looks to return to the local area late
week and possibly into the weekend, with increasing shower and
storm chances - leading to potential heavy rainfall.

We are in peak hurricane season. Check weather.gov/mlb and hurricanes.gov
for the latest updates, and take the time to check on your hurricane
preparedness kits and plans.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Through Tuesday...Surface high pressure over the Deep South
gradually transitions eastward into the western Atlc. Present
NERLY winds will veer ERLY overnight into Mon becoming ESE/SE on
Tue. Wind speeds will remain AOB 15 kts thru Tue morning, then
increase 12-18 kts areawide Tue afternoon-night. ISOLD-WDLY SCT
shower/lightning storm chances - highest values south from the
Cape. Seas generally 3-4 ft, with up to 5ft possible offshore/Gulf
Stream beginning Tue afternoon-night.

.Previous Extended Marine Forecast Discussion...

Wednesday-Thursday...There is considerable uncertainty in the
forecast for mid to late week. High pressure shifts farther eastward
into the Atlantic, as a tropical disturbance given a 80% chance of
formation over the northwest Caribbean enters the Gulf of Mexico.
Local weather will be highly dependent on the track of this system.
While it to too early to discuss what, if any impacts, this could
bring to the east central Florida waters, boating conditions look to
deteriorate from around mid into late week, as southeasterly winds
increase and seas build. Shower and lightning storm chances will
increase, as well. Be sure to stay updated on the latest forecast
for any changes.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The Saint Johns River near Astor is forecast to remain in Moderate
Flood Stage into mid week, before falling into Minor Flood Stage by
late next week. However, northerly winds will have the potential to
delay the decline, as well as any heavy rain potential past mid next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VCSH at all terminals for southwest moving showers. VFR forecast,
although brief VIS/CIG reductions will be possible with isolated
showers. Low confidence in lightning today and have kept any
mention out of the 18Z TAF package. East/northeast winds increase
to 10-12 kts through the afternoon. Gusts between 15-18 kts are
forecast at coastal terminals. Coastal VCSH continues from MLB
southward overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  89  74  89 /   0  10   0  10
MCO  74  92  74  91 /   0  10   0  10
MLB  77  89  77  89 /  20  10  10  10
VRB  75  89  75  89 /  30  20  10  20
LEE  73  92  73  92 /   0   0   0  10
SFB  73  91  73  91 /   0  10   0  10
ORL  75  92  75  92 /   0  10   0  10
FPR  75  89  75  89 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Law