Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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417 FXUS62 KMLB 231431 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1031 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1031 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Current KMLB radar imagery shows scattered showers and isolated lightning storms over the local Atlantic. Current temperatures are in the low to mid 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s. This morning`s 10Z XMR skew-t sounding indicates ample moisture in place with a PWAT values of 2.10", as well as mid and low RH at 80%, in addition to moderate instability with surface CAPE at 2507 J/kg and weak 0-6km shear at 12kts. There`s less certainty in today`s forecast with differences in how much coverage of showers and lightning storms there will be into this afternoon. The HRRR continues to be inconsistent indicating little convection developing to scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms this afternoon. However, the previously mentioned weather parameters and a similar pattern to yesterday is likely to continue above normal coverage of showers and lightning storms this afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms are forecast to develop into this afternoon as boundary collisions occur between the east coast sea breeze and the weaker west coast sea breeze, as well as outflow from previous storms with the greatest chance for showers and storms along and west of I-4, as well as the western interior (PoPs ~ 60-70%). Weak wind fields will result in slow moving storms with locally heavy rainfall (1-3" in a short period of time). Additionally, lightning storms will have the potential to produce wind gusts up to 30-35mph and occasional to frequent lightning strikes. South to southeast winds are forecast this afternoon at 5-15mph as the east coast sea breeze moves inland into this afternoon with the exception of the western interior where a winds will be south-southwest into this afternoon. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat index values in the 98-107 degree range are forecast under partly cloudy to partly sunny skies. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 730 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Atlc ridge axis is draped across central FL which will produce a light southerly flow less than 10 knots, turning SE around 10 knots at coastal terminals behind the sea breeze this aftn. SCT SHRA/TSRA should develop with the sea breeze with highest coverage over northern/interior terminals later this aftn into the eve (KDAB/KSFB/KMCO/KLEE). These TAFs will have a TEMPO for MVFR conds in TSRA roughly 19Z-23Z with VCSH persisting past sunset. The last several runs of the HRRR model have not been excited about diurnal convection but think it is underdoing the coverage. Have less confidence for TEMPO group at MLB-SUA so will maintain liberal usage of VCSH/VCTS there. && .MARINE... Issued at 404 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Today-Monday...High pressure over the western Atlantic will promote south to southeast winds across the local waters. Seas of 3 ft gradually subside to 2 ft into Monday night. Scattered to numerous lightning storms are forecast. Tuesday-Thursday...Light southwest to west flow develops over the local Atlantic waters by Tuesday. Winds back southward each afternoon with the development of the east coast sea breeze. Seas remain 2 ft through the period with occasional seas to 3 ft well offshore. High coverage of showers and lightning storms continue each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 74 93 76 / 60 40 70 20 MCO 90 75 92 76 / 70 50 70 20 MLB 88 75 91 75 / 60 40 70 30 VRB 89 73 91 74 / 60 40 60 20 LEE 92 76 93 77 / 70 40 70 20 SFB 91 76 93 76 / 70 40 70 20 ORL 91 76 93 77 / 70 40 70 20 FPR 89 73 91 73 / 60 40 70 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Fehling AVIATION...Kelly