403
FXUS62 KMLB 260759
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
359 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Today...The western extent of a surface ridge axis resides over the
Straits of Florida. West to southwest flow persists locally,
promoting the inland extent of the west coast sea breeze. CAMs are
rather excited in developing scattered convection on the boundary
with outflow running ahead. Light offshore flow is expected to keep
the east coast sea breeze across the coastal counties with scattered
showers and storms developing along it. Afternoon outflow/ sea
breeze collisions will occur in vicinity of the I-95 corridor
where shower and storm chances will be highest today (~60-70%).
Steering flow is then expected to overcome the east coast
boundary, pushing showers and storms back towards the coast
through the late afternoon and into the evening. Late afternoon
redevelopment west of I-95 cannot be completely ruled out as new
outflow boundaries interact with the lagging west coast sea
breeze. Primary hazards with any storms today continues to remain
heavy rainfall, cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, and localized
gusty winds.

A Moderate to Major Heat Risk continues today. High temperatures are
expected to reach the low to mid 90s, while conditions remain humid.
Peak heat index values are forecast between 102-106 degrees.


Thursday-Friday...Mid level troughing and an accompanying surface
boundary sink across the southeast U.S., washing out as it approaches
north Florida on Friday. The western flank of Atlantic high pressure
continues to hold influence over central Florida, keeping west to
southwest flow in place through Friday afternoon. The west coast sea
breeze remains favored, with a sea breeze collision forecast across
the central or eastern side of the peninsula each afternoon. While
global models continue to show moisture discrepancies, 00Z CAMs
indicate the potential for high coverage of showers and storms again
on Thursday. With little change expected in the pattern by Friday,
have kept a persistent forecast with PoPs up to 60% each afternoon.
High temperatures remain in the low to mid 90s with peak heat index
values between 103-107 degrees.


Saturday-Tuesday...The surface ridge axis lifts northward through
Saturday, settling across the central peninsula into early next
week. Winds become light and variable on Saturday, with a broad
southerly component developing by Sunday. The summertime pattern
continues each day, favoring diurnal showers and lightning storms.
Afternoon temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s with peak heat
index values between 103-107 degrees.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Today-Sunday...Seas around 2 ft gradually increase to 3 ft across
the offshore waters Thursday and Friday as an onshore swell
increases. Light offshore winds become onshore Saturday before
developing a broad southerly component on Sunday. Winds back with
the development of the east coast sea breeze each afternoon. A
summertime pattern continues with high coverage of showers and
storms forecast across the local waters (50-70%) each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Mainly VFR. A weak offshore flow will be present across the area
today, with W/NW winds around 5-7 knots this morning. This will
still allow the east coast sea breeze to form toward early
afternoon, with winds along the coast becoming E/SE around 8-10
knots near to after 18Z. Scattered to numerous showers and storms
will develop across east central FL, with greatest coverage
occurring with sea breeze/storm outflow collisions near to west of
I-95. Weakening offshore steering winds will still be able to
push storms offshore into early this evening, but some lingering
scattered convection will continue across the area into the
evening hours. For now have VCTS at most TAF sites from 18-00Z
(17-23Z at KLEE), with VCSH then continuing through 03Z. Tempo
IFR/MVFR conditions will occur with any of this activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  76  94  76 /  60  40  60  20
MCO  93  76  92  77 /  60  50  60  10
MLB  91  76  93  76 /  60  30  60  20
VRB  91  74  93  74 /  60  30  60  10
LEE  94  76  93  77 /  50  20  60  10
SFB  94  76  93  77 /  60  40  60  10
ORL  94  77  93  77 /  60  40  60  10
FPR  91  74  93  74 /  60  30  60  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Weitlich