Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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840 FXUS62 KMLB 260550 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 150 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Mainly VFR. A weak offshore flow will be present across the area today, with W/NW winds around 5-7 knots this morning. This will still allow the east coast sea breeze to form toward early afternoon, with winds along the coast becoming E/SE around 8-10 knots near to after 18Z. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop across east central FL, with greatest coverage occurring with sea breeze/storm outflow collisions near to west of I-95. Weakening offshore steering winds will still be able to push storms offshore into early this evening, but some lingering scattered convection will continue across the area into the evening hours. For now have VCTS at most TAF sites from 18-00Z (17-23Z at KLEE), with VCSH then continuing through 03Z. Tempo IFR/MVFR conditions will occur with any of this activity. && .UPDATE... Issued at 925 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Forecast held up very well this afternoon and evening, with no significant changes needed. Storms stayed west enough of Kennedy Space Center for the GOES-U rocket launch to sneak out just before anvil moved in aloft. Slow moving and stationary storms produced widespread rainfall amounts 1-2" and locally high amounts 3-5" along a fairly contiguous band from Harmony to Orange City, the latter of which also saw the strongest storm of the day that briefly produced nickel sized hail. Locally high rainfall amounts up to 3" were also seen from near Kenansville to near Country Hill Estates. A couple stubborn storms near Leesburg and area of debris showers linger on early tonight, but should all dissipate by midnight. A quiet rest of the night is forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Current-Tonight... Surface ridge axis will continue to shift slightly south and eastward. SW flow today has shifted SE/S this afternoon behind the sea breeze, and will shift back to SW overnight. Wind speeds will remain light, with 10 KT or less. Seas will be 2 ft across the nearshore waters and 2-3ft in the offshore waters. Scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible this afternoon through the overnight, especially in the offshore waters. Wednesday-Sunday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Light offshore flow shifts SE/S each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops. Background flow then becomes southerly on Saturday and Sunday, backing onshore with a developing sea breeze in the afternoon. Winds remain light through the period, generally 10 KT or less, increasing slightly on Sunday with speeds around 10 KT. Seas of 2 ft persist with occasional seas up to 3 ft across the far offshore waters. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms are forecast each afternoon and early evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 93 76 94 76 / 60 40 60 20 MCO 93 76 92 77 / 60 50 60 10 MLB 91 76 93 76 / 60 30 60 20 VRB 91 74 93 74 / 60 30 60 10 LEE 94 76 93 77 / 50 20 60 10 SFB 94 76 93 77 / 60 40 60 10 ORL 94 77 93 77 / 60 40 60 10 FPR 91 74 93 74 / 60 30 60 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Haley AVIATION...Weitlich