649
FXUS62 KMLB 260124
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
924 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 833 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions prevail outside of convection. TS INVOF most
inland terminals this evening on a downward trend and should
dissipate by around 02Z. Debris -SH could linger a few hours
later, especially KTIX-KSUA, but should remain VFR and don`t even
have VCSH mentioned in some cases. Generally quiet overnight.
Little bit of uncertainty how the sea breezes and TS will evolve
Wednesday. Light westerly flow will push the WCSB quickly across
the peninsula while holding the ECSB near the I-95 corridor. How
much TS develops along the WCSB in the late morning-afternoon will
have a significant impact on timing of TS at the inland terminals,
which could be as early 17Z. Less TS on the WCSB would keep
timing closer to the currently advertised 19Z VCTS. TS develops on
the ECSB INVOF the coastal terminals around 18Z, eventually
getting overrun by inland storms with all this activity pushing
offshore in the evening.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Current-Tonight... The east coast sea breeze has formed this
afternoon and is pushing inland. Isolated storms have formed along
the sea breeze already, mainly north of Titusville with scattered
activity to the north and west of the CWA. Temperatures as of 3
PM are in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices up to 105
degree.

The upper level low pressure along the NE US coast today will
continue to shift east and northward into tonight, dragging a
surface boundary across the southeast US and off the Atlantic
seaboard. Generally light W/SW flow as the Bermuda high axis shifts
further eastward, with the winds shifting east/SE behind the sea
breeze. The sea breeze collision is forecast to occur across the
interior this afternoon, where the highest coverage of showers and
storms (PoP 60-70 percent) is located this afternoon and into early
evening. PoP 40-50 percent along the coast through the evening
hours, since steering flow should be light enough to limit a higher
coverage of showers and storms being pushed back towards the coast.
However, with stronger winds aloft, debris clouds/precip of taller
storms might get pushed back towards the coast. Similar to
yesterday, main storm hazards for any storms today will be locally
heavy rainfall, occasional to frequent lightning strikes, and gusty
winds up to 35 mph. Slow moving to stationary storms will be capable
of a quick 1-3" of rain in a short 60-90 minute time frame.
Temperatures will continue to be hot and muggy today, with afternoon
highs in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices ranging from 102
to 106 degrees.

Any lingering activity should dissipate or move out of the local
area by midnight, with mostly dry conditions expected over land
tonight. Winds will become light tonight with winds shifting back to
the W/SW. Overnight lows will be warm and muggy, with overnight lows
in the low to mid 70s.

Wednesday... Bermuda high pressure axis will continue to shift south
and eastward through the period. Scattered to numerous showers and
scattered lightning storms are expected to form once again in the
afternoon and continue into early evening. The east coast sea breeze
is forecast to form and push inland in the afternoon. However, due
to slightly stronger westerly winds, the sea breeze collision might
occur closer to I-95, with higher coverage of storms being pushed
back towards the coast. Similar to the last couple days, the main
storm hazards will continue to be heavy rainfall, occasional to
frequent lightning strikes, and localized gusty winds up to 35 mph.
Hot and muggy conditions will continue, with afternoon highs in the
low to mid 90s. Peak heat index values will range from 102 to 106
degrees.

Thursday-Friday... (Modified Previous Discussion) The Bermuda
high axis is extended westward and will shift southward across the
Straits of Florida. Westerly flow prevails locally, favoring a
sea breeze collision across the central or eastern side of the
peninsula each day. There remains some uncertainty in the amount
of moisture and overall storm coverage through the period. Global
models continue to suggest the potential for a drier airmass to
advect from the Gulf, but little has been resolved when comparing
model runs from 24 hours ago. A GFS solution continues a much more
aggressive, drier solution (PWATs ~ 1.5-1.7). The ECMWF holds
onto higher moisture as a boundary sags across the southeast U.S.
Have held PoPs steady with this forecast package (60%) and will
continue to monitor moisture trends. Afternoon temperatures remain
in the low 90s each day with peak heat index values up to 105.

Saturday-Tuesday...(Modified Previous Discussion)Light southerly
flow develops into the weekend while the western extent of the
Atlantic ridge holds influence. A typical diurnal pattern of
afternoon showers and storms continues. High temperatures warm into
the low to mid 90s each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Current-Tonight... Surface ridge axis will continue to shift
slightly south and eastward. SW flow today has shifted SE/S this
afternoon behind the sea breeze, and will shift back to SW
overnight. Wind speeds will remain light, with 10 KT or less. Seas
will be 2 ft across the nearshore waters and 2-3ft in the offshore
waters. Scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible this
afternoon through the overnight, especially in the offshore waters.

Wednesday-Sunday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Light offshore
flow shifts SE/S each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze
develops. Background flow then becomes southerly on Saturday and
Sunday, backing onshore with a developing sea breeze in the
afternoon. Winds remain light through the period, generally 10 KT
or less, increasing slightly on Sunday with speeds around 10 KT.
Seas of 2 ft persist with occasional seas up to 3 ft across the
far offshore waters. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered
lightning storms are forecast each afternoon and early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  93  75  94 /  30  70  40  60
MCO  75  93  77  93 /  50  70  30  60
MLB  75  92  75  93 /  30  70  40  60
VRB  74  91  74  93 /  40  70  40  60
LEE  76  93  77  93 /  40  70  30  60
SFB  76  93  76  94 /  50  70  30  60
ORL  76  93  77  94 /  50  70  30  60
FPR  74  91  74  93 /  40  70  30  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Haley