Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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970 FXUS62 KMLB 211752 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 152 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 148 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 MVFR CIGs have slowly lifted to VFR this morning into the early afternoon, and that trend will continue into the remainder of the day. VCSH continues across the interior terminals, DAB, TIX, and MLB, with some VCTS possible after 19Z at MCO and ISM. Variable winds this afternoon will become more ESE through the remainder of the afternoon around 10 knots. VCSH does not end until around 01-03Z, with winds becoming SE along the coast and light and variable across the interior. Winds pick up out of the ESE after 17Z along the coast with the development of the ECSB, with the sea breeze reaching the interior terminals after 19Z. Increasing shower and storm coverage is expected tomorrow afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland. VFR conditions are expected to persist tonight into tomorrow. && .UPDATE... Issued at 938 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 An area of low pressure (Invest AL92) near the northeast Florida coast continues to move west-northwest towards the northeast Florida and Georgia coasts. Conditions remain mostly favorable (50%) for weak development with weak deep layer shear and anomalously warm waters in place over the southwest Atlantic. However,the low is expected to continue to move to the north of central Florida with the same impacts expected for east central Florida regardless of development. Current radar imagery shows scattered showers over the local Atlantic and isolated showers over areas north-northwest of Titusville. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered lighting storms are forecast to develop into the afternoon and as showers/storms move onshore and increase in coverage with the east coast sea breeze pushing inland. The main hazards associated with stronger lightning storms that develop are expected to be occasional to frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 30-40mph, and moderate to brief heavy rainfall. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s are forecast with heat index values in the mid 90s to 105 degrees under partly cloudy to partly sunny skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 530 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Today...A tropical disturbance is forecast to remain north of the waters, reaching the FL/GA border later today. As the trough axis passes from SE to NW across the area, winds will shift out of the south and southeast during the day and seas will gradually subside below 7 feet offshore by afternoon. A Small craft advisory remains in effect this morning for the Volusia waters and offshore Brevard with Caution for most of the other marine zones. Ongoing scattered showers with a few embedded lightning storms will persist this morning near and north of Cape Canaveral then should decrease in coverage. But additional late day storms over land may reach the Volusia/north Brevard coast toward sunset. Sat-Tue...Improving boating conditions this weekend into early next week, with south to southeast winds remaining under 15 kts this weekend, then veering more SW early next week. A sea breeze near the coast should develop each aftn, however. Seas 3-4 ft becoming 2-3 ft through the period. Greater daily shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected, especially early next week, with increasing chances for offshore- moving convection each afternoon and evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 90 74 91 / 30 60 60 70 MCO 77 92 75 90 / 30 60 50 70 MLB 77 90 76 89 / 30 60 60 70 VRB 77 90 75 90 / 30 60 40 70 LEE 77 93 76 92 / 30 60 50 70 SFB 76 92 75 91 / 30 60 50 70 ORL 77 92 76 91 / 30 60 50 70 FPR 76 90 75 90 / 30 60 40 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Fehling AVIATION...Tollefsen