039
FXUS62 KMLB 230604
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
204 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 204 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Keeping TEMPO MVFR CIGs/VSBYs for FPR & SUA a little while longer
based on radar trends and will keep MLB/VRB VFR with VCSH. This
activity should diminish through 08Z but pop-up SHRA possible even
over the interior through sunrise. On Sun, very moist S to SE
flow 7-10 knots with scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA. Most of the
time VFR CIGs are forecast but TEMPO IFR/MVFR conds will occur in
and storms. Confidence is not high on when to insert TEMPO groups
but added them from 19Z-22Z at MCO/SFB/ISM with VCSH after 00Z.
Will prob add a similar TEMPO to LEE and DAB with the 12Z TAF
package. Less confident about coastal terminals MLB-SUA and will
maintain liberal usage of VCSH/VCTS terms there for now.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A return this afternoon/evening to a more normal diurnal
summertime wx pattern across ECFL. Deep moisture, daytime
heating, and various boundary collisions promoted SCT-NMRS showers
and lightning storms. This activity will continue to diminish
into mid-late evening and overnight. Cannot rule out ISOLD
convection along the coast overnight, especially south from
Melbourne. S/SE winds will become L/V to calm this evening and
overnight. Clouds will thin overnight as convection diminishes.
Overnight lows in the 70s areawide.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 855 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Overnight...Scattered-numerous showers and lightning storms over
the local Atlc waters. Primary convective hazards remain cloud-
to-water lightning strikes, gusty winds, and torrential
downpours. S/SE winds will veer a bit more SSW overnight with
speeds 5-10 kts. Seas 2-3 ft near shore and 3-4 ft offshore,
locally higher invof storms.

Sunday-Wednesday (previous discussion)...High pressure centered
offshore over the Atlantic will produce a southerly flow this
weekend 7-10 knots, enhanced from the SE 10-14 knots behind the
sea breeze near the coast. The trailing ridge axis will shift
south across the waters early next week ahead of a weak front. As
a result, sfc wind flow will develop a more offshore (southwest to
west) component but the sea breeze will be able to form each day.
Deep moisture will remain place keeping rain and storm chances
high with offshore moving storms a concern next week. Seas 3-4 FT
today subsiding 2-3 FT Sun then 2 FT Tue-Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  74  93  76 /  50  40  70  20
MCO  90  75  92  76 /  60  50  70  20
MLB  88  75  91  75 /  60  40  70  30
VRB  89  73  91  74 /  50  40  60  20
LEE  92  76  93  77 /  60  40  70  20
SFB  91  76  93  76 /  60  40  70  20
ORL  91  76  93  77 /  60  40  70  20
FPR  89  73  91  73 /  60  40  70  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Kelly