Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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618 FXUS62 KMLB 220609 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 209 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 208 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 VCSH at LEE/DAB early this morning, diminishing around 07/08Z. Brief MVFR CIGs have been observed at MCO/ISM with low confidence in MVFR prevailing. However, TEMPOs may be needed. Otherwise, prevailing VFR is forecast outside of convection. South to southeast flow becomes onshore into the afternoon with the development of the east coast sea breeze. VCSH included at the coastal terminals as the sea breeze develops and pushes inland. VCTS is mentioned at the inland terminals as the sea breeze moves westward and coverage increases along a sea breeze collision. Will reevaluate if thunder is needed along the coast with the next TAF package issuance. && .UPDATE... (Through Saturday) Issued at 953 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Rich tropical moisture remains overhead through the weekend, sparking scattered to numerous (50-70%) showers and storms, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. There is a Marginal Risk for locally excessive rainfall. - High temperatures ranging from 88-94F, yielding max heat indices of 100-107F this weekend. - Scattered to numerous showers and storms (50-70%) are also expected early to mid next week. Tonight... Downpours are still percolating out there this evening, particularly in a zone from Tampa Bay to Daytona Beach, clipping the western Orlando suburbs. This is near a surface trough axis emanating from weak low pressure just NE of Jacksonville (Invest 92L). Deep moisture convergence is occurring in an uncapped environment with PW`s ~ 2.25". Guidance isn`t handling this activity particularly well, but the trend should be for lessening coverage overnight. However, localized pockets of heavy rain and isolated lightning strikes are possible in this area through around midnight. South of Orlando to Titusville, shower chances are quite low (20%) through the night. Overnight low temps will remain balmy, in the mid 70s. Saturday... Mid-level ridging over the ArkLaTex will act to hold this axis of deeper moisture over the state through the weekend. Only isolated morning showers are expected, however the latest HREF guidance remains bullish on sea-breeze driven showers and storms over the interior by afternoon and early evening. Tall, skinny CAPE profiles and warm cloud depths to above 16 KFT will support very efficient rain processes. Localized flooding of poor-draining and urban areas is possible where storms recur. A marginal risk (5%) of excessive rainfall is in place for the interior, and HREF members indicate a 20-40% chance of 2"+ / 6HR rain potential. This includes the Greater Orlando area. Storm chances range from 70% from Lake/Orange Co`s south to Lake O, decreasing to around 50% along the coast. Before the storms pop, highs will reach the 89-94F range, hottest near Greater Orlando to Clermont where heat indices from 102-107F are expected due to the intense humidity. While just below our "Heat Advisory" criteria, folks working or enjoying the day outdoors should seek frequent water breaks in the shade. && .MARINE... Issued at 953 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Overnight... Showers are ongoing to the north of Cape Canaveral, and this trend should continue over the next few hours as we reside just south of weak low pressure. Winds will remain SE from 8-15 KT, with seas 3-4 FT nearshore, 4-5 FT in the Gulf Stream. Sat-Tue (previous discussion)... Improving boating conditions this weekend into early next week, with south to southeast winds remaining under 15 kts this weekend, then veering more SW early next week. A sea breeze near the coast should develop each aftn, however. Seas 3-4 ft becoming 2-3 ft through the period. Greater daily shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected, especially early next week, with increasing chances for offshore- moving convection each afternoon and evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 90 74 91 75 / 60 50 70 30 MCO 92 75 91 75 / 70 50 70 30 MLB 89 75 89 75 / 50 30 60 30 VRB 90 75 90 74 / 50 30 50 30 LEE 93 76 92 76 / 70 60 70 30 SFB 92 75 92 75 / 60 50 70 30 ORL 92 76 92 76 / 70 50 70 30 FPR 90 74 90 73 / 50 30 50 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Heil AVIATION...Law