961
FXUS62 KMLB 180216
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1016 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Showers and lightning storms are holding on a little longer than
expected across the southern counties thanks to multiple boundary
interactions near the frontal boundary meandering across Central
Florida, and the trough aloft associated with a mid-level low over
the Southeast. Had a couple stronger storms develop during the
evening, and a small outbreak of hook-shaped showers and storms
which had little to no rotation, but so far haven`t seen any
reports beyond a few gusts to 25-35 mph. Most of this activity has
dissipated or pushed offshore, but a few linger on, including a
few that managed to recently develop in Lake County, which should
dissipate by midnight. Made a couple changes to PoPs through the
evening to match trends, but the rest of the forecast remains in
good shape.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 746 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Extended VCTS through 03Z-04Z at KMLB-KSUA for TSRA/SHRA flaring
up on outflow boundaries near the stalled frontal boundary west
of the terminals. Short-fused AMDs for +TSRA impacts possible as
this activity shifts eastward and offshore, especially KVRB-KFPR.
Overnight fog or stratus generally not expected, but there is a
small chance for VIS reductions at KLEE between 09Z-14Z, though
too low for mention in the TAFs. Typical diurnal seabreeze pattern
and near normal afternoon SHRA/TSRA chances expected again
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 410 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Now-Tonight...Improving boating conditions are expected with seas
decreasing to around 3-5 ft late tonight. Winds remain light,
becoming offshore overnight around 5 kt. Isolated showers and
lightning storms are possible, capable of producing gusty winds and
locally higher seas.

Wednesday-Saturday...Light offshore flow becomes onshore behind the
east coast breeze each afternoon through Thursday, before more
persistent ENE wind resumes Friday into next weekend. Seas are
forecast to be favorable for boating, around 2-4 ft. Daily rain and
lightning storm chances will continue, especially Wed-Thu.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  91  73  89 /  10  40  30  30
MCO  75  92  74  91 /  20  50  20  50
MLB  75  90  75  89 /  20  50  50  50
VRB  73  91  74  90 /  30  50  40  60
LEE  74  91  74  90 /  10  40  10  40
SFB  73  91  73  90 /  20  50  20  50
ORL  75  92  75  91 /  20  50  20  50
FPR  73  91  74  90 /  30  50  40  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Haley
AVIATION...Haley