214
FNUS72 KMLB 270903
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for SFWMD - Gardner...South Florida Water Management District
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
503 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on June 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
With the lack of a sea breeze today, southwest winds will persist
over the burn site, 5-12 mph. There is a 20% chance of showers
through late morning, then a 50% chance for lightning storms from
around 2PM until early evening. Erratic, gusty winds up to 40 mph
will occur in the vicinity of storms. Dispersion will be very
good today. Heat precautions should be taken as heat index
readings will likely peak around 101-104 degrees this afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the morning,
                    then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 1200, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......4600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 14 mph.
Dispersion index....56 increasing to 64 late in the afternoon, then
                    decreasing to 47 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............2.

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........45  47  50  52  54  55  57
Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).20  30  40  50  50  50  50
LAL.............2   3   3   3   3   3   3
Temp............85  86  86  88  88  88  89
RH..............75  72  70  64  64  62  61
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..7   8   8   8   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.13  15  16  16  16  16  15
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 3.8 3.7 4.0 4.6 3.6 3.1
Transp wind dir.W   SW  SW  W   SW  W   W
Transp wind spd.13  13  13  14  13  14  13
Dispersion idx..54  57  58  68  68  60  47
LVORI...........2   2   2   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2000, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 75.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 14 mph.
Dispersion index....35 decreasing to 6.
LVORI...............1 increasing to 7.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........54     49     43     37     31     33
Weather cov.....CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).50     10     0      0      0      0
LAL.............3      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............88     86     82     79     79     78
RH..............63     68     79     88     88     91
20 ft wind......SW 8   SW 7   SW 6   SW 6   SW 6   S 5
20 ft wind gust.15     12     9      8      7      7
Mix hgt (ft)....2000   700    500    500    500    500
Transport wind..SW 14  SW 12  SW 10  SW 9   SW 9   SW 9
Dispersion idx..35     8      7      4      4      4
LVORI...........1      3      4      5      6      7

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the morning.
                    Showers and thunderstorms likely late in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0800, then 1-8 strikes until
                    1400, then 16-25 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light, then becoming southwest 5 to 6
                    mph late in the morning. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL increasing to 4700 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and early afternoon, then
                    increasing to 5300 ft AGL late in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 2400 ft AGL late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 10 mph shifting to the west
                    around 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....4 increasing to 18 early in the morning, then
                    increasing to 32 late in the morning increasing
                    to 46 late in the morning increasing to 60
                    decreasing to 52 late in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 40 decreasing to 27 late in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............9 decreasing to 2.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........31        27        38        51
Weather cov.....          S CHC     S CHC     LIKELY
Weather type....NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........          S CHC     S CHC     LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).0         20        20        60
LAL.............1         2         2         4
Temp............77        80        86        89
RH..............97        91        71        64
20 FT wind......S 5G6     SW 3G7    SW 5G10   SW 6G12
Mix hgt (ft)....400       2000      4100      4300
Transport wind..SW 8      SW 9      SW 9      W 10
Dispersion idx..4         22        49        52
LVORI...........8         4         2         1

$$
Forecaster...Heil
Requested by...James Blush
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2416756.0/MLB
.DELDT 06/27/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jblush@sfwmd.gov