Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
059
FNUS72 KMLB 281028
FWSMLB
Spot Forecast for WBTWMA - Unit 4C...FWC
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
628 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on June 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Light southwest winds around 5 mph will mostly persist today, but
the east coast sea breeze will develop and be able to move a little
farther inland today. This boundary may be able to reach the burn
site by late afternoon, switching winds to the east to southeast
to around 7 to 9 mph. Additionally, scattered to numerous showers and
storms will be able to develop across the area this afternoon, with
gusty and variable winds possible in the vicinity of any storms that
develop. Weaker transport winds today will lead to poor to fair
dispersion values.
Hot and humid conditions forecast to continue today, with a high
in the mid 90s this afternoon and peak heat index values around
105.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms early in the afternoon, then
showers and thunderstorms likely late in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1300, then 1-8 strikes until
1400, then 9-15 strikes until 1600, then 16-25
strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph early
in the afternoon, then shifting to the
southeast around 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL increasing to 4900 ft AGL early in
the afternoon, then decreasing to 2900 ft AGL
late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 7 mph shifting to the northeast
around 8 mph late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....14 increasing to 34 in the late morning and
early afternoon, then decreasing to 18 late in
the afternoon.
LVORI...............4 decreasing to 2 in the afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........21 25 32 39 43 58 60 70 70
Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 10 20 40 50 60 70
LAL.............1 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 4
Temp............82 86 89 91 92 92 92 90 88
RH..............82 72 68 62 60 58 58 62 68
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW S SE E
20 FT wind spd..2 2 3 5 5 6 6 6 7
20 FT wind gust.5 6 7 7 8 9 8 8 9
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 3.0 3.5 4.3 4.9 4.8 3.9 2.9 1.9
Transp wind dir.SW SW W W W W SW SW NE
Transp wind spd.7 7 7 6 5 6 6 7 8
Dispersion idx..14 26 32 34 29 27 23 22 18
LVORI...........4 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 3
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Showers and
thunderstorms likely early in the evening, then
chance of showers and thunderstorms early in
the evening. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms late in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................16-25 strikes until 2000, then 9-15 strikes
until 2200, then 1-8 strikes until 2400, then
No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 75.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 6 mph shifting to the
southeast 5 to 6 mph early in the evening, then
becoming light in the late evening and
overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 9 mph shifting to the south 2 to 8
mph.
Dispersion index....12 decreasing to 3 early in the evening.
LVORI...............4 increasing to 8.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........70 83 68 73 61 53
Weather cov.....LIKELY CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........LIKELY CHANCE S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).70 40 20 10 10 10
LAL.............4 3 2 1 1 1
Temp............86 82 79 78 77 76
RH..............72 82 91 91 94 94
20 ft wind......NE 6 SE 5 S 2 S 2 S 2 S 2
20 ft wind gust.8 7 6 5 5 3
Mix hgt (ft)....1500 1100 500 400 400 400
Transport wind..E 9 SE 6 S 7 S 8 S 6 S 5
Dispersion idx..16 4 3 4 3 2
LVORI...........3 4 6 6 6 7
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the morning.
Showers and thunderstorms likely late in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0800, then 9-15 strikes until
1400, then 16-25 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........68 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 6 mph in the
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms early in the morning.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL increasing to 3700 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 5 mph shifting to the north late in
the afternoon.
Dispersion index....4 increasing to 24.
LVORI...............8 increasing to 10 early in the morning, then
decreasing to 8 early in the morning decreasing
to 5 late in the morning decreasing to 3.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........60 38 59 70
Weather cov..... CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).0 50 50 70
LAL.............1 3 3 4
Temp............76 81 88 87
RH..............97 85 69 69
20 FT wind......S 1G2 S 1G2 E 3G7 E 6G9
Mix hgt (ft)....400 1100 2700 3100
Transport wind..S 3 S 5 E 6 NE 7
Dispersion idx..2 6 21 26
LVORI...........8 5 3 3
$$
Forecaster...Weitlich
Requested by...Melanie Mancuso
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2416843.0/MLB
.DELDT 06/28/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL melanie.mancuso@myfwc.com