717
FXUS64 KMOB 261808
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
107 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR conditions are set to prevail through the afternoon, except
for some very localized MVFR ceilings and/or visibility reductions
and gusty winds in the vicinity of scattered SHRA/TSRA that will
continue to develop through the afternoon hours. Will continue to
monitor convective trends through the afternoon. Winds will mostly
be out of the west to southwest between 7-12 knots through the
afternoon. MVFR ceilings may develop into interior portions of
southeast MS and southwest/south central AL late tonight into
Thursday morning. Confidence was low enough to keep mention of
MVFR impacts out of the KMOB/KBFM/KJKA/KPNS TAF early Thursday
morning with this issuance. /21

&&

.NEAR TERM UPDATE...

Heat will be the primary concern going into this afternoon as
temperatures top out in the 90s with dewpoints in the 70s. We
expanded the Heat Advisory to include most of our CWA this
afternoon as maximum heat index values reach up to around 108
degrees. Confidence was a little lower in heat indices reaching
those values up around Butler/Crenshaw counties as some of the
latest guidance had dewpoints mixing a little lower into the upper
60s or near 70 this afternoon, keeping heat indices just below our
advisory thresholds.

Shortwave impulses translating over the area this afternoon ahead
of a deepening upper trough over the Ozarks/Tennessee Valley
regions will combine with ample deep layer moisture (precipitable
water values between 1.8-2.2 inches) to aid in the development of
scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon into early this evening. CAPE values up to 3000-4000
J/KG along with some drier air aloft aiding in downdraft CAPE
values in excess of 1000 J/KG could allow for some of the stronger
cells that develop to produce strong wind gusts this afternoon.
Will keep an eye on radar trends for a few cells becoming capable
of producing strong to marginally severe gusts. Frequent
lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall will also accompany
the stronger storms that develop. /21

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>056-059-060-
     261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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