572
FXUS64 KMOB 260446
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1146 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A few showers or storms are possible near the coast during the
early morning hours, then scattered to potentially numerous
showers and storms are anticipated to develop over the area on
Wednesday, mainly during the afternoon hours. MVFR conditions are
possible with the stronger showers and storms, and patchy fog may
develop late tonight as well, but otherwise VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through Wednesday evening. Calm or light
southwesterly winds overnight will be followed by a westerly to
southwesterly flow at 5 to 10 knots on Wednesday. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 639 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024/

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A few showers and storms linger into the early evening hours
before dissipating, then scattered to possibly numerous showers
and storms are expected to redevelop on Wednesday, mainly during
the afternoon hours. VFR conditions are expected to prevail
outside of the convection (although can`t rule out a few patches
of late night fog), while MVFR conditions will be possible with
the stronger showers and storms. Light southwesterly winds
overnight become westerly to southwesterly 5 to 10 knots on
Wednesday. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Upper level high pressure has become centered over the vicinity of
far west TX and the Desert Southwest this afternoon, but the
associated upper level ridge axis does extend eastward across much
of the southern U.S. and into the north central Gulf Coast region. A
surface ridge of high pressure meanwhile stretches across much of
the northern Gulf of Mexico. Hot temperatures are in place across
much of our forecast area, with readings ranging in the mid to upper
90s over much of our interior as of 3 PM, and around 90 to the lower
90s along the coast. A weak surface front/boundary has entered far
northern portions of our CWA this afternoon, where visible satellite
imagery shows much less in the way of cloud cover and surface
observations indicate a much drier airmass in place behind this
feature (surface dewpoints have fallen into the upper 50s to lower
60s around the vicinity of Troy, Greenville, and Selma as of 3 PM).
Dewpoints are higher across the rest of our forecast area on the
other side of the boundary and are generally ranging in the 70s
resulting in heat indices between 102-107 degrees and locally up to
around 110 degrees. We will allow the Heat Advisory to remain in
effect for these locations until expiration at 7 PM CDT. We are
finally seeing cumulus congest on satellite imagery this afternoon
with isolated showers and thunderstorms beginning to pop up over
portions of the area. Convection should generally be isolated to
widely scattered in nature through the remainder of the afternoon,
with coverage generally 15-25 percent at best. The isolated
convective activity should diminish during the early evening hours
or shortly after sunset.

The upper level ridge of high pressure should continue to retrograde
westward tonight. A shortwave trough currently moving across the
central and northern Plains is forecast to amplify as it moves
across the OH/TN Valleys and adjacent north central Gulf Coast
region on Wednesday. Deep layer moisture will be on the increase in
association with this approaching feature, with precipitable water
values looking to rise to between 2.0-2.4 inches across our CWA
Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage as
the day progresses, and will continue to highlight good chance to
likely POPs (50-70%) across most of our region. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible in some places. A few  storms capable of
producing brief strong wind gusts and frequent lightning strikes
will also be possible. Maximum heat indices may once again reach up
to 102=107 degrees and very locally up to around 110 before storms
develop. Given the increasing cloud cover/storm potential, heat
related threats should overall be lower, so have opted not to issue
another Heat Advisory at this time. Lows tonight will range in the
70s (around 80 near the coast), with highs in the 90s. /21

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Rain chances will still be rather high on Thursday as an upper
level long wave trough continues to dig across the eastern third
of the CONUS. Models still indicate potential shortwave activity
traversing the area in the flow aloft. This will send a weak
surface boundary southward toward our area from the north. The
combination of the boundary, along with the upper trough will
bring scattered to locally numerous showers and storms on
Thursday, with coverage peaking during the afternoon and early
evening hours. The higher coverage of showers and storms will keep
high temps a little lower, primarily in the lower 90s. The upper trough
moves east by Friday with the surface front becoming diffuse.
Aloft, weak upper ridging returning on Friday and then persisting
through the remainder of the period. The center of the upper ridge
will remain to our west over the ArkLaTex region, so our area will
be in a rather deep northerly flow pattern. Some weak shortwave
energy will likely round the eastern periphery of the upper high
and occasionally drop south across our area through the later part
of the period. This pattern, along with daytime heating and
instability, will allow for chances of scattered showers and
storms each day, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. Highs
on Thursday also still mainly in the lower 90s, but as we move
into the remainder of the period look for highs to return the mid
and even possibly upper 90s by early next week, when heat index
values will likely be near advisory criteria again. Nighttime lows
mainly in the low to mid 70s through the period for most
locations, but upper 70s along the immediate coast. DS/12

MARINE...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

No hazardous impacts expected as a light to occasionally moderate
southwesterly to westerly flow is expected to continue over the next
several days. Winds and seas will occasionally be higher in and near
showers and thunderstorms. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      77  93  74  91  74  91  75  94 /  10  60  50  70  40  50  10  40
Pensacola   80  94  77  90  78  92  78  93 /  20  60  50  70  50  50  20  50
Destin      81  91  78  90  80  90  80  91 /  20  40  50  60  50  50  30  40
Evergreen   73  96  71  92  72  93  72  95 /  10  60  30  60  30  60  20  40
Waynesboro  75  94  71  91  72  93  72  96 /  20  60  50  80  20  50  10  30
Camden      73  96  71  90  71  93  72  94 /   0  60  40  70  30  60  20  30
Crestview   75  97  72  94  73  95  73  97 /  10  50  30  60  40  50  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob