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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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359 FXUS64 KMOB 281804 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 104 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Scattered showers have once again developed across the area and will likely continue through the afternoon. Temporary reductions in visibilities and ceilings will be possible with the heaviest of storms. Winds will be light out of the south-southwest through the forecast. Scattered showers will likely develop along the coast overnight tonight and drift inland in the typical diurnal cycle. BB/03 && .NEAR TERM... (Now through Saturday) Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 An active convective pattern continues through the near term period as an upper-level trough lingers overhead. Throughout the day today, this trough will break away from the jet stream (located well to our north) and will evolve into an elongated, yet weak upper low/inverted trough axis which will remain overhead through Saturday. By the tail end of the period, this feature will dissipate as an upper ridge over the south central US expands eastward, placing the local region under the eastern periphery of this ridge. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary located across portions of southern Mississippi/Alabama is expected to dissipate throughout the day today, allowing for the typical summertime land/sea breeze circulation to develop and become the dominant surface feature through the period. With PWATs exceeding 2 inches across the entire area, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop both days. Convection will start by developing over coastal counties and marine zones during the morning hours. By the afternoon, this activity will spread inland as the sea breeze pushes northward and interacts with outflow boundaries. Activity will gradually wane during the evening hours thanks to the loss of daytime heating. As is the case with typical summertime convection, although severe storms are generally not expected, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall will be possible with some of the stronger storms that manage to develop. Additionally, the combination of very strong low-level CAPE values and surface vorticity can be conducive for the development of waterspouts over our marine zones, or possibly a very brief landspout over coastal counties. Highs for both today and tomorrow will top out in the low 90s. We should stay just below Heat Advisory criteria, although heat indices will likely climb into the 102 to 107 degree range for both days thanks to dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Lows tonight will remain very mild, with temperatures only dropping into the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to around 80 degrees closer to the coast. A Moderate Risk of rip currents will remain in place through tonight due to an elevated southwesterly flow over the Gulf, leading to increased surf heights. With winds decreasing for Saturday, the rip current risk drops to a Low risk. /96 SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 432 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Upper high pressure will be ridging into our area from the west into the early part of next week. The upper high pressure will drift east by late in the period, being centered MS/AL. With the center of the upper ridge situated to our west over the ArkLaTex region through the weekend, a rather deep northerly flow pattern will persists over our region with some weak shortwave energy likely rounding the eastern periphery of the upper high. This upper energy, combined with a dissipating weak surface frontal boundary over the interior southeast CONUS, along with daytime heating and instability, will allow for scattered to locally numerous showers and storms each day, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. During the early to middle part of next week, surface high pressure will be ridging in from the east, maintaining the moist low level airmass across the region. This will help maintain a chance for scattered showers and storms each day into the early to middle part of next week, but with the upper ridge building coverages will be a little less than in the first part of the period. Daytime highs through Sunday will primarily be in the low to mid 90s, with afternoon heat indices in the 100-105 degree range. Monday and especially into Tuesday and Wednesday, daytime highs increase into the middle 90s for most locations, with heat indices likely above 108 degrees in many areas. With this, we will potentially be looking at another round of Heat Advisories for at least portions of our area by Monday and then into Wednesday of next week. Nighttime lows will continue to be mainly in the low to mid 70s through the period for most locations, but upper 70s along the immediate coast. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 91 76 94 75 94 75 92 / 50 70 20 70 40 50 30 60 Pensacola 79 91 79 93 78 92 79 90 / 50 60 30 70 50 70 40 70 Destin 80 89 80 91 79 91 80 90 / 40 60 30 70 50 70 40 60 Evergreen 74 92 74 93 73 95 73 93 / 30 70 20 70 30 50 20 60 Waynesboro 74 93 73 94 73 95 72 96 / 40 60 20 70 20 40 10 50 Camden 74 92 73 92 73 94 72 93 / 30 70 20 70 20 40 10 50 Crestview 75 93 74 94 74 96 74 93 / 50 60 20 70 40 70 30 70 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob