Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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364 FXUS64 KMOB 150904 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 404 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 404 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 One more hot day before the pattern does a 180 and we enter a soggier period. Upper level high pressure will be directly over Alabama today as it slowly drift eastward. Meanwhile in the southern Gulf, an inverted trough will progress westward into the southwestern Gulf by Sunday. While subsidence will be king today, moisture will surge northward on Sunday as the upper high slides into the western Atlantic and the inverted trough settles in the Bay of Campeche. Deep southerly flow will develop by Sunday marking the start of a much more active period. Given deep layer subsidence today, rain is not expected once again and high temperatures will continue to be the talking point. Highs will climb into the upper 90s today; however, drier air will once again keep values to below advisory criteria. Sunday looks to be significantly cooler and soggier as that band of rather impressive Gulf moisture surges in. PWATS will quickly climb to nearly 2 inches along the coast. As this moisture gradient lifts northward, expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop across the area. The best rain chances will exist across the I-10 corridor where the better moisture is located. Given rather impressive tropical profiles, heavy rainfall will be the predominant hazard with any storm and the only thing keeping a more substantial flood issue would be the rather dry antecedent conditions. That may change as we move on later in the week. Along with the increase rain chances, increasing southeasterly flow will allow for seas to build and the rip current risk to rapidly rise from low early Sunday morning to High by midday Sunday. BB/03 && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Monday night) Issued at 404 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 An upper ridge over the eastern states and an evolving broad/weak upper trof over the western Gulf into the ArkLaTex region along with a surface ridge over the southeastern states will create a deep layer southerly flow which brings increasing amounts of abundant Gulf moisture into much of the southeastern states. Precipitable water values over the forecast area increase from 1.6-2.2 inches to 2.0-2.45 inches Sunday night, and similar values continue into Monday for much of the area except for somewhat drier air working into eastern portions of the area in the afternoon. A series of shortwave progress mostly across the north central Gulf coast area through the period, and associated forcing associated with these will mostly favor the western half of the forecast area. A broad zone of low level convergence was noted developing mainly near the coast Sunday night, so have gone with likely pops for extreme southeast Mississippi, extreme southwest Alabama and part of the western Florida panhandle. Pops taper off Sunday night to mainly slight chance pops over interior parts of south central Alabama. For Monday, daytime heating along with an increase in the strength of the shortwaves and a modest low level convergent zone again developing near much of the coast will support likely to categorical pops for the western and central portion of the area with chance pops for the remainder of the area. For Monday night, forcing associated with the shortwaves decreases which along with the loss of daytime heating and the modest low level convergent zone looking to shift more into the marine area, have gone with chance pops for much of southeast Mississippi, extreme southwest Alabama and the western Florida panhandle with lesser pops or dry conditions elsewhere. Rainfall amounts from Sunday night into Monday night of 2-4 inches are possible over extreme southwest Alabama into much of southeast Mississippi, with the highest values mainly affecting Stone county. Progressively lower rainfall amounts are expected for the remainder of the area. While antecedent conditions are certainly dry, will need to monitor for the potential of flooding concerns where the higher rainfall totals are expected, especially over extreme southeast Mississippi. Lows Sunday night and Monday night range from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s near the coast. Highs on Monday will be moderated by precipitation and cloud cover and generally range from around 90 over the eastern third of the area to the mid 80s elsewhere. A moderate risk of rip currents Sunday night will be followed by a high risk beginning on Monday. /29 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 404 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 The eastern states upper ridge steadily builds into the forecast region through Wednesday along with progressively drier air flowing into the forecast area beginning Tuesday night. The upper ridge is deflected away from the region on Thursday by an inverted upper trof (in the easterlies) advancing into the central Gulf. A moist southerly flow will still be in place on Tuesday, so have gone with likely pops over extreme southeast Mississippi and extreme southwest Alabama with chance to slight chance pops for much of the remainder of the area. Progressively lower rain chances follow for Wednesday into Thursday such that by Thursday dry conditions are expected over interior areas with slight chance to chance pops over the coastal counties and extreme southeast Mississippi. For Friday, have gone with slight chance to chance pops for much of the area as deep layer moisture is anticipated to improve over the area as the upper trof continues into the western Gulf, but convective potential will be tempered by the eastern states upper ridge also building back into the area. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 404 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A light to occasionally moderate diurnal flow prevails through today, with an offshore flow at night into the morning hours and a mostly onshore flow in the afternoon and early evening hours. A light to moderate southeasterly flow is established by Sunday and strengthens as low pressure develops in the southwestern Gulf. Seas are also expected to increase as we head into early next week. Small craft will need to exercise caution and conditions could exceed Small Craft Advisory criteria by the middle of the week. BB/03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 96 75 89 74 86 74 87 75 / 10 0 80 60 80 40 60 30 Pensacola 94 78 88 77 88 77 89 77 / 0 0 80 60 70 40 50 30 Destin 92 79 88 78 89 78 90 77 / 10 10 80 50 60 40 40 30 Evergreen 98 71 93 71 90 71 91 71 / 10 10 60 30 50 20 30 10 Waynesboro 98 72 94 72 85 71 87 71 / 10 10 60 40 70 30 40 20 Camden 98 72 94 72 90 72 90 73 / 10 10 40 20 40 10 20 10 Crestview 99 72 92 71 93 72 92 71 / 10 10 70 30 50 20 30 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Wednesday morning for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Wednesday morning for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob