757
FXUS64 KMOB 200950
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
450 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday Night)
Issued at 450 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Very little change to the overall pattern as our forecast area
remains located in between Tropical Storm Alberto making landfall in
northeast Mexico and a large, elongated upper ridge extending from
the western Atlantic to west Texas. As the remnants of Alberto moves
westward across Mexico, the upper ridge will slowly sag southward
through the near term. Rain chances across the southern half of our
forecast area will be higher today compared to yesterday as we
anticipate mainly scattered showers along with a slight chance of
thunderstorms this afternoon through mid-evening as another plume of
increased moisture spreads from east to west. Dry conditions will
resume from mid-evening through Friday night, with the exception of
a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm across portions of the
western Florida Panhandle Friday afternoon into early evening.

Generally kept temperatures trended in line with the NBM, with highs
this afternoon around normal ranging from 87 to 92 degrees. Highs on
Friday will be slightly above normal ranging from 90 to 95 degrees.
Lows tonight and Friday night will continue to be slightly above
normal ranging from 67 to 72 degrees inland areas and from 72 to 77
degrees closer to the coast. Barrier islands should see lows only
dropping into the upper 70s.

Coastal hazards: A few reports of wave runup/minor coastal flooding
were received yesterday along the west end of Dauphin Island
(Bienville Blvd) and near I-10 ramps in northern Mobile Bay around
times of high tide courtesy of the persistent easterly flow. With
similar high tides again today, have maintained a Coastal Flood
Advisory around times of high tide from 8 AM TO 2 PM for Mobile Bay,
mainly for the I-10 ramps/Causeway areas and along the west end of
Dauphin Island and possibly Shell Belt/Coden Belt Rd areas in far
southern Mobile County. Dangerous surf with large breaking waves up
to 5-7 feet will continue to impact area beaches through 6 PM this
evening. A HIGH rip current risk also continues through Friday
night. /22



&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Saturday night)
Issued at 450 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

An elongated upper level ridge continues to stretch across the
southern half of the US on Saturday. While down at the surface, a
weakening trough axis is expected to slide underneath the ridge
and move northwestward across the Florida Panhandle and into the
Southeastern US. A slug of increased moisture is expected to
accompany this surface trough which will bring the potential for
some isolated to scattered showers and storms to the area on
Saturday afternoon. Right now, the better coverage (about 30-40%)
for convection will be over portions of south central Alabama and
the Florida Panhandle given their proximity to the surface trough.
Temperatures will be hot outside of any storms given the
subsidence aloft. High temperatures will top out in the lower to
middle 90s Saturday afternoon with a few spots in southeast
Mississippi potentially reaching into the upper 90s given the
slightly higher heights and lower rain chances in those areas. It
will feel even hotter though with heat index values expected to
reach to around 100-106 degrees. Low temperatures Saturday night
range from the lower 70s well inland to the upper 70s and around
80 degrees along the coast. The rip current risk becomes moderate
at all area beaches on Saturday. /14



&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 450 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Upper level ridging begins to retreat westward on Sunday as a
northern stream shortwave sweeps across the Great Lakes region.
As we head into early next week, the upper ridging becomes
centered over the Desert Southwest with broad upper troughing
taking place over the eastern US. This will result in a
northwesterly flow pattern aloft over the local area. Deep layer
moisture will increase during the period as persistent
southwesterly to southerly flow continues to usher in rich, Gulf
moisture. This combination of the departing ridge aloft and deep
layer moisture and will result in daily chances for showers and
storms though the period with coverage likely peaking during the
afternoon and evening hours. The lowest PoPs in the period are
currently expected on Sunday given that the ridge and its
associated subsidence will still have some influence over the
local area. Rain chances will gradually become more scattered to
numerous during the early to middle parts of next week as heights
fall across the region. Outside of any storms, temperatures will
be hot with areas reaching into the 90s each afternoon. These hot
temperatures combined with increasing moisture in the boundary
layer will result in heat index values approaching Heat Advisory
criteria especially on Sunday and Monday. Lows overnight will
range from the lower 70s inland to the upper 70s at the beaches.
/14



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 450 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Hazardous conditions for Small craft will persist today as
a moderate to strong easterly flow remains in response to the
pressure gradient between Tropical Storm Alberto making landfall in
northeast Mexico and a large area of high pressure over the
southeast. Seas will range from 5 to 8 feet over the Gulf,
occasionally to 10 feet well offshore, with waves near 2 feet in
bays and waterways. Winds and seas will gradually diminish tonight
into Saturday before winds return to a more southerly to
southwesterly flow over the weekend into early next week. /22



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      91  72  93  72  93  75  93  76 /  20  20  10  10  20  10  30  10
Pensacola   90  75  93  75  91  77  91  79 /  50  30  10  20  30  10  40  20
Destin      90  75  92  78  90  80  90  80 /  60  20  20  30  30  20  40  20
Evergreen   90  67  93  70  94  72  95  73 /  30  20  10  10  40  10  30  10
Waynesboro  91  69  94  69  96  72  98  74 /  10  10   0   0  20   0  20  10
Camden      89  68  92  69  93  72  96  73 /  10  10   0   0  20   0  20  10
Crestview   93  68  95  71  94  72  95  74 /  50  20  20  20  40  10  40  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM CDT this
     afternoon for ALZ263>265.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ650-
     655-670-675.

&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob