401
FXUS64 KMOB 261141
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
641 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Isolated showers have developed along the coast early this
morning along with some very localized patchy fog. Showers and
storms are expected to increase in coverage later this afternoon
and evening across the area. Temporary reductions to ceilings and
visibilities and gusty winds will be possible in and around
convection. Otherwise, VFR conditions will largely prevail through
late tonight. Ceilings will begin to lower to MVFR/IFR thresholds from
the north after 06z tonight. /14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 501 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 501 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A few showers have developed along the coastal counties this morning
and will likely linger through sunrise. Conditions have also been
hot and humid overnight with temperatures hovering in the upper 70s
and lower 80s as of 4am.

As we head into the rest of today, upper ridging continues to
retreat westward as an upper trough strengthens over the eastern
CONUS. Several shortwaves will move within the mean flow, with the
first shortwave sliding over the local area late this afternoon and
evening. A moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the
region today as PWATs surge to around 2 inches. This moisture and
the lowering of heights is expected to bring an increase of showers
and storms to the area today especially when compared to the last
few days. Some of the hi-res guidance continues to indicate the
development of isolated to perhaps scattered storms developing along
the sea-breeze and in areas where convective temperatures are
reached this afternoon. Coverage is then expected to increase as the
shortwave aloft moves overhead with storms becoming more numerous
late this afternoon and evening. It is possible that we could see a
cluster of storms/MCS develop along lingering outflow boundaries
over the northern Mississippi and Arkansas border later today. If
this feature develops, it would likely sink south to southeast
through the evening and could bring the potential for some strong
gusty winds especially over our far northwestern counties.
Regardless of this development though, rain chances will be on the
rise. Deep layer shear overall is expected to be around 20-30 knots,
but even if the MCS doesn`t develop, we could see a some strong
downbursts especially in areas where storms cluster given that there
is strong surface heating, sufficient mid level dry air, and DCAPE
values around 1000 J/Kg. Locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible in some places. Storms will likely linger later into the
evening given the better forcing aloft with a brief lull expected
later tonight.

We will still be quite hot ahead of any storm development today.
High temperatures are expected to climb into the lower and middle
90s for most locations with perhaps some upper 90s over our far
eastern counties. While there is some uncertainty due to the timing
of storm initiation, it is possible that there will be a brief
window where heat index values could reach to near 108 degrees late
this morning and early this afternoon before rain chances increase.
A Heat Advisory has therefore been issued for southeast Mississippi,
southwest Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle today. Although, if
storms develop earlier than expected, then we may need to cancel the
advisory early. Low temperatures will drop into the 70s overnight.

Upper level troughing continues on Thursday and rain chances will
remain elevated. A second shortwave looks to move overhead Thursday
morning and will interact with lingering surface boundaries. These
features combined with ample moisture will result in the re-
development of showers and storms Thursday morning especially along
southern portions of the area. Additional showers and storms will
also be possible through Thursday afternoon, but current thinking is
that the NBM (which was suggesting nearly 80% PoPs) is probably a
bit too high. Therefore, I did make slight adjustments to lower PoPs
on Thursday. High temperatures on Thursday will be tempered somewhat
with upper 80s and lower 90s across the area. /14

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Weak upper ridging returns on Friday and then persists through
the remainder of the period. The center of the upper ridge will
remain to our west over the ArkLaTex region, so our area will be
in a rather deep northerly flow pattern. Some weak shortwave
energy will likely round the eastern periphery of the upper high
and occasionally drop south across our area through the later part
of the period. This pattern, along with daytime heating and
instability, will allow for chances of scattered showers and
storms each day, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. High
temps return to the mid and even possibly upper 90s by early next
week, when heat index values will likely be near advisory
criteria again. Nighttime lows mainly in the low to mid 70s
through the period for most locations, but upper 70s along the
immediate coast. DS/12

MARINE...
Issued at 501 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

No hazardous impacts expected as a light to occasionally
moderate southwesterly to westerly flow is expected through the
week. Winds and seas will occasionally be higher near showers and
thunderstorms. /14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      94  75  89  74  90  76  92  76 /  60  40  60  50  50  20  40  20
Pensacola   94  77  90  77  90  79  91  78 /  40  50  60  50  50  30  50  20
Destin      91  78  89  79  89  80  90  80 /  40  50  60  50  50  30  50  20
Evergreen   96  71  90  72  93  73  93  73 /  60  50  70  30  50  20  40  20
Waynesboro  94  71  89  72  93  73  95  73 /  60  60  70  20  50  10  40  10
Camden      95  70  89  71  90  72  92  73 /  60  50  60  20  40  10  40  10
Crestview   97  73  91  73  93  74  95  73 /  50  40  60  40  50  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ051-052-059-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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