953
FXUS64 KMOB 170510
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1210 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Ceilings will lower to IFR/MVFR range overnight into Tuesday
morning with showers perhaps a brief thunderstorm lingering along
the coast. Ceilings should lift to VFR by late Tuesday morning.
Added a PROB30 group for Tuesday afternoon for all TAF sites, but
may need to update to TEMPO groups if confidence in convective
impacts to aviation increases. Vsby briefly reduced to IFR
criteria in and near the stronger convection along with brief
moderate convective wind gusts will occur in the afternoon with
the stronger convection. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday night)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

16.12Z upper air analysis shows a broad upper trough (H20/H30)
positioned east of the MS River Valley, of which the base of said
trough is atop the central Gulf coast. This favors the
east/southeastward translation of high altitude impulses to aid in
forced ascent. To our west, short wave upper ridge is developing
from the Rio- Grande Valley northward thru TX with the strongest
jet streak in the southern stream aligned over the four corners of
the Desert southwest at the base of sharper upper trough sliding
east into the western CONUS. In the mid to lower levels, the
pattern remains quite similar to that from Sunday 09/15. A trough
of low pressure has settled a bit south and is positioned over
southern AR/northern LA. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front
remains draped west to east near the central Gulf coast. The
gradient of deep moisture is aligned northwest to southeast, right
over the heart of the forecast area with lower values 1.6 to 1.8
inches positioned from LA to central AL to 1.8 to 2.0" aligned
over southwest AL and points east. Modestly unstable local
environment is characterized by SB Capes ranging 1500-2500 J/KG
over southeast MS to southwest AL and expect the environment to
continue to destabilize as we go into the afternoon especially in
areas where there are breaks in the overcast and better solar
insolation. Considering the front/upper level troughing in place,
sufficient deep layer moisture and instability, showers and storms
are anticipated to increase in areal coverage through the
remainder of the day. The weakened state of bulk shear values at
this time, suggest that storms will remain sub-severe. The main
threats in storms today look to continue to be the high efficiency
of rain rate processes resulting in potential of isolated,
flooding in those areas subject to poor drainage where storms move
over/or slowly across the same areas. It is difficult to nail
down where the heavier rain areas will set up but the entire area
is favored for at least a marginal risk of excessive, flooding
rain.

Coverage is forecast to become more scattered tonight. With the
quasi-stationary front lingering across southern LA and just off
the AL/western FL Gulf coast Tuesday, the latest forecast calls
for a 30-50% PoP generally along and south of the US Hwy 84
corridor with the higher PoPs in the range expected to be more
focused near the coast. The front sinks southward out over the
Gulf Tuesday night and takes with it the better rain chances which
will become more aligned out over the coastal waters then.

Lows this period reflect the mid 60s up along the US Hwy 84
corridor to the upper 60s/lower 70s southward to the coast. Highs
in the mid 80s expected Tuesday. /10

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

An upper level low over the Appalachians evolves into an open
trof over the eastern states by Thursday. A weak frontal boundary
lingers over the forecast area on Wednesday then moves well
offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. Drier air will have begun
to flow into interior portions of the area on Wednesday and
continues over the remainder of the area Wednesday night. Have
gone with slight chance pops over the southern portion of the area
for Wednesday afternoon with the weak boundary present and
sufficient deep layer moisture, then dry conditions follow for
Wednesday night. The eastern states upper trof moves slowly off
into the western Atlantic through this weekend with upper ridging
meanwhile building into the forecast region. Subsidence associated
with the upper ridge is anticipated to promote dry conditions
over the forecast area for Thursday through Monday. Highs on
Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 80s, trend a bit warmer for
Friday and Saturday, then trend to the mid 80s for Monday. Lows
typically range from the lower 60s well inland to the lower 70s at
the coast through Friday night, then lows Saturday night and
Sunday night range from the mid 60s inland to the lower 70s near
the coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Friday
night. /29

MARINE...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Main impacts will primarily be Tuesday and Wednesday with isolated
to scattered thunderstorms, bringing brief strong wind gusts and
locally higher seas. Away from storms, winds expected to be 10
knots or less and seas a foot or less. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      68  87  69  90  68  90  68  90 /  10  20   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   72  87  72  89  71  89  72  87 /  10  20   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      73  87  73  89  72  89  74  87 /  10  20   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   64  89  65  89  64  91  66  91 /   0  10   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  64  88  64  88  63  88  64  90 /   0  10   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      65  87  63  87  63  88  64  90 /   0  10   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   67  88  67  89  66  91  67  90 /  10  20   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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