034
FXUS64 KMOB 232110
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
410 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A rather benign weather pattern will continue in the near term.
Upper level ridging over the Gulf Coast will gradually slide east
and become centered over the western Atlantic by Tuesday evening. At
the same time, an upper trough will dig across the Mississippi
Valley and send an associated surface front into northern portions
of Mississippi and Alabama. A subtle surface ridge will remain
positioned along the Deep South through Tuesday which will maintain
a light southerly to southeasterly flow through the period. The
influence of the upper ridging aloft and lack of substantial deep
layer moisture will keep conditions mostly dry through Tuesday. The
only exception will be a brief shower or storm that may try to
develop during the afternoon hours, but confidence in this potential
remains low. Temperatures tonight will dip into the upper 60s and
lower 70s with high temperatures on Tuesday rising back into the
lower 90s with upper 80s along the immediate coast. Patchy fog may
also develop over interior portions of the area late tonight or
early Tuesday morning. /14

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

All eyes during the short term period will be on the Gulf of
Mexico, where a strong Tropical Storm or Hurricane is expected to
be entering the southern Gulf. The eventual motion of the system
will depend on the interaction of developing longwave trough
digging across the Mississippi River Valley and an upper ridge
over the western Atlantic. Models have trended stronger with the
upper trough and as a result the forecast track has moved
eastward. An upper low is forecast to cutoff at the base of this
trough and drift westward Wednesday into Thursday. These systems
like to take the path of least resistance which leads to a track
toward the FL big bend area in the break between the trough to the
west and ridge to the east. Air Force aircraft is currently
investigating the area around Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 which
will likely be a tropical storm by Tuesday morning. This data
along with increased upper air data will hopefully continue to
help models resolve the storms track and intensity. We will have
to continue to watch for track changes as there are a few GFS
ensemble members that have a further west track. Regardless, this
system will bring very hazardous marine conditions, including
dangerous surf and rip currents to the area mid to late week.

Rain chances will be on the increase Wednesday into Thursday as
the forcing from the upper trough and associated front move into
the area. On the current forecast track, northerly flow would
bring drier air into the area Thursday afternoon and evening. /13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The remnants of the tropical system are expected be in northern
Georgia by 8AM Friday and into the Ohio Valley by Saturday.
Meanwhile, the upper low will slowly weakens and drift west
northwest. The flow around the remnants of the tropical system
will bring drier air into the area through Saturday. Moisture
levels increase again by early next week with isolated showers and
storms returning to the area. /13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 410 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

NHC has started issuing advisories on Potential Tropical
Cyclone 9 which is expected to strengthen and move into the southern
Gulf on Wednesday. This system will bring significantly higher seas
and strengthening winds to the marine area. Please see the National
Hurricane Center for more information. Winds and seas are expected
to subside Friday into Friday night, although there is uncertainty
regarding how quickly this occurs. /14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  91  71  86  70  79  68  84 /   0  10  20  70  70  70  40  20
Pensacola   74  89  75  85  72  79  71  84 /   0  10  30  70  80  80  40  20
Destin      75  88  75  85  73  80  74  84 /   0  10  30  60  80  80  50  20
Evergreen   68  93  69  87  70  79  68  83 /   0  10  20  70  80  80  50  30
Waynesboro  69  92  69  87  67  80  67  82 /   0  10  20  60  50  60  40  20
Camden      70  92  69  85  68  77  67  81 /   0   0  30  70  70  70  50  30
Crestview   69  93  70  86  71  79  67  85 /   0  10  30  70  80  90  50  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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