143
FXUS64 KMOB 161814
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
114 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA will continue to spread across the
region through the afternoon, with the greatest coverage impacting
central and southern portions of the CWA. The heavier bands of
convection will contain reductions to MVFR (or very briefly IFR)
conditions with heavy rainfall and wind gusts up to around 30 kt.
Convective coverage should diminish this evening and overnight
before the next round of scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA develops
again by mid to late Monday morning. /21

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

The summer rainy season is about to kick it off this week as a
rather active pattern sets up as early as this morning. The high
pressure that has given us the heat and drier conditions this week
will quickly translate east into the western Atlantic. Meanwhile,
a series of inverted troughs will work their way around the
northern periphery of a larger gyre centered over central America.
This semi-persistent feature is know as the Central American Gyre
and typically set up around this time of year and can be the
spawning grounds for some early season tropical mischief. The good
news is for our area that while a few weak systems could be
possible in the coming weeks there are no signs that any of these
areas of interest will impact us directly. The bad news is that we
will be in a bit of a funnel of deep Gulf moisture that will
setup between the Gyre and the large upper ridge to our east. In
this channel of moisture, PWATS will range from 2 inches to as
high as 2.5 inches or more. With this sort of moisture and pattern
in place, its almost always a good bet on a rather soggy week.
Rain chances will begin this morning and only increase through the
period. Current radar shows showers already developing over the
marine waters and those are only expected to expand in coverage
later this morning as they approach the coast. The best rain
chances today will be along the coast and then expanding across
southwestern Alabama and into southeastern Mississippi. Areas more
east of I-65 will still see rain but could be more scattered in
nature given the proximity to the upper ridge. Rain chances relax
during the overnight hours as the first wave pushes through.

By Monday the next wave will enter the area bringing widely scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for rain will
continue to be across southeastern Mississippi into coastal
southwestern Alabama where better low level convergence will be
present. The biggest issue will be the potential for locally heavy
rainfall given the rather deep tropical moisture. Storms will be
highly efficient in producing heavy rainfall; however, nebulous
forcing, dry antecedent conditions and no true low level focus for
storms will likely keep any flooding localized at least for now.
While some localized flooding cannot be ruled out, it will likely be
confined to poor drainage areas and urban zones. Along with the
increased rain chances, waves will be on the general increase
leading to a HIGH risk of rip currents beginning today and
eventually large breaking waves at the beaches leading to a high
surf advisory. BB/03

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for
     ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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