Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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953 FXUS64 KMOB 170510 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1210 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Ceilings will lower to IFR/MVFR range overnight into Tuesday morning with showers perhaps a brief thunderstorm lingering along the coast. Ceilings should lift to VFR by late Tuesday morning. Added a PROB30 group for Tuesday afternoon for all TAF sites, but may need to update to TEMPO groups if confidence in convective impacts to aviation increases. Vsby briefly reduced to IFR criteria in and near the stronger convection along with brief moderate convective wind gusts will occur in the afternoon with the stronger convection. /22 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024/ .New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 16.12Z upper air analysis shows a broad upper trough (H20/H30) positioned east of the MS River Valley, of which the base of said trough is atop the central Gulf coast. This favors the east/southeastward translation of high altitude impulses to aid in forced ascent. To our west, short wave upper ridge is developing from the Rio- Grande Valley northward thru TX with the strongest jet streak in the southern stream aligned over the four corners of the Desert southwest at the base of sharper upper trough sliding east into the western CONUS. In the mid to lower levels, the pattern remains quite similar to that from Sunday 09/15. A trough of low pressure has settled a bit south and is positioned over southern AR/northern LA. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front remains draped west to east near the central Gulf coast. The gradient of deep moisture is aligned northwest to southeast, right over the heart of the forecast area with lower values 1.6 to 1.8 inches positioned from LA to central AL to 1.8 to 2.0" aligned over southwest AL and points east. Modestly unstable local environment is characterized by SB Capes ranging 1500-2500 J/KG over southeast MS to southwest AL and expect the environment to continue to destabilize as we go into the afternoon especially in areas where there are breaks in the overcast and better solar insolation. Considering the front/upper level troughing in place, sufficient deep layer moisture and instability, showers and storms are anticipated to increase in areal coverage through the remainder of the day. The weakened state of bulk shear values at this time, suggest that storms will remain sub-severe. The main threats in storms today look to continue to be the high efficiency of rain rate processes resulting in potential of isolated, flooding in those areas subject to poor drainage where storms move over/or slowly across the same areas. It is difficult to nail down where the heavier rain areas will set up but the entire area is favored for at least a marginal risk of excessive, flooding rain. Coverage is forecast to become more scattered tonight. With the quasi-stationary front lingering across southern LA and just off the AL/western FL Gulf coast Tuesday, the latest forecast calls for a 30-50% PoP generally along and south of the US Hwy 84 corridor with the higher PoPs in the range expected to be more focused near the coast. The front sinks southward out over the Gulf Tuesday night and takes with it the better rain chances which will become more aligned out over the coastal waters then. Lows this period reflect the mid 60s up along the US Hwy 84 corridor to the upper 60s/lower 70s southward to the coast. Highs in the mid 80s expected Tuesday. /10 SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 An upper level low over the Appalachians evolves into an open trof over the eastern states by Thursday. A weak frontal boundary lingers over the forecast area on Wednesday then moves well offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. Drier air will have begun to flow into interior portions of the area on Wednesday and continues over the remainder of the area Wednesday night. Have gone with slight chance pops over the southern portion of the area for Wednesday afternoon with the weak boundary present and sufficient deep layer moisture, then dry conditions follow for Wednesday night. The eastern states upper trof moves slowly off into the western Atlantic through this weekend with upper ridging meanwhile building into the forecast region. Subsidence associated with the upper ridge is anticipated to promote dry conditions over the forecast area for Thursday through Monday. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 80s, trend a bit warmer for Friday and Saturday, then trend to the mid 80s for Monday. Lows typically range from the lower 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the coast through Friday night, then lows Saturday night and Sunday night range from the mid 60s inland to the lower 70s near the coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Friday night. /29 MARINE... Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Main impacts will primarily be Tuesday and Wednesday with isolated to scattered thunderstorms, bringing brief strong wind gusts and locally higher seas. Away from storms, winds expected to be 10 knots or less and seas a foot or less. /10 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 68 87 69 90 68 90 68 90 / 10 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 72 87 72 89 71 89 72 87 / 10 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 73 87 73 89 72 89 74 87 / 10 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 64 89 65 89 64 91 66 91 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 64 88 64 88 63 88 64 90 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 65 87 63 87 63 88 64 90 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 67 88 67 89 66 91 67 90 / 10 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob