205
FXUS64 KMOB 241753
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1253 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

General VFR conditions with local MVFR level CIGs/VISBYs in isolated
showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. A few
rainshowers in the late night into morning hours along the coast are
possible, in MVFR level CIGs. This convection will mix out as the
the boundary layer increases with the day`s heating, so am not
expecting it to last much past mid morning. General west to
southwest winds 5 to 10 knots expected through the forecast, with a
drop-off to around 5 knots or less overnight.
/16
&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

An upper level ridge currently stretches southeast over the northern
Gulf of Mexico, north-central Gulf coast, with a mean upper level
trough along the East Coast. A weak cold front continues to move
south over the forecast area, with isolated convection along and
south. Instability has been limited so far, with minimal lightning
on the lighting plots, but an increase has been noticed at noontime.
Am expecting an increase in lightning as temperatures rise and
instability increases (guidance indicates MLCapes rising into the
2500-3000J/kg range as temperatures rise to well above seasonal
norms). DCapes are modest (500-700J/jg), so strong to marginally
severe pulse thunderstorms are possible. A increase in moisture
levels is also indicated with the southward moving front
(precipitable h20 levels rising into the 2.0"-2.2" range). The
combination of hot temperatures and high moisture levels will create
heat indices in the 105-110F range over the forecast area today.
Heat Indices of 108F+ are still indicated over areas south of a
Wayne County to Okaloosa County line for this afternoon, so am not
adjusting the current heat advisory.

Tonight through Tuesday, guidance is advertising moisture levels
dropping as northerly flow on the west side of the East Coast upper
trough re-asserts itself, with precipitable h20 levels of
1.5"-1.7" along and south of a Waynesboro to Crestview line, 1.0"
to 1.5" north. Guidance is also advertising the upper ridge
building a bit. An increase in temperatures from increased
subsidence Tuesday (high temperatures in the 95-100F range well
inland from the coast, 90-95 closer to and along the coast) is
expected. Even with the drop in moisture levels, Heat Indices for
Tuesday will see an uptick, especially along and south of a Butler
to Florala line (107-112F). 100-107F are expected north. Am
planning on adding Choctaw, Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, and Covington
to today`s Heat Advisory coverage for coming package. Also, with
the better moisture levels closer to the coast, isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are again possible in the
afternoon over and south of a Waynesboro to Opp line, with an
inland moving seabreeze of the Gulf the initiator. South of the
coast, overnight/morning showers and thunderstorms remain
possible, so have left isolated to scattered convection in the
forecast.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  97  77  94  74  93  75  93 /  20  30  10  50  50  60  30  40
Pensacola   79  95  79  93  78  92  77  92 /  30  30  20  50  40  60  40  50
Destin      80  91  81  91  79  90  79  90 /  30  30  20  50  40  60  40  40
Evergreen   72  99  73  95  72  93  72  95 /  10  30  20  60  40  60  20  40
Waynesboro  74 100  74  96  72  94  72  96 /  10  30  20  60  40  50  20  30
Camden      72  98  72  96  71  93  72  95 /   0  10  10  50  40  50  20  30
Crestview   75  99  75  96  72  94  72  95 /  20  30  20  60  40  60  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ALZ051>053-055-
     056-059-060-261>266.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ052-059-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for FLZ201>206.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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