484
FXUS64 KMOB 171207
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
704 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 704 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

MVFR ceilings in some areas this morning, with some isolated
showers near the coast this morning, then VFR for a period of time.
Showers and storms more numerous by this afternoon, with MVFR to
locally IFR conditions possible near storms (but mostly this will
be inland away from TAF sites). Winds mainly light, east to
southeast through the period. DS/12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 445 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 445 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

A lot of convection ongoing over the marine area early this
morning. Seeing some weak rotation in a number of the stronger
storms, and several useful waterspout parameters (Sfc Vorticity/Sfc-
3km MLCAPE Parameter Field and the None-Supercell Tornado Composite
Index) suggest a high probability of waterspouts over the marine
area again today (at least for this morning, although the large
Dauphin Island waterspout yesterday occurred in the late afternoon
hours and favorable parameters may persist well into the day again
today). Most of the CAM`s do suggest that the convective activity
will decrease over the marine area today however, and become more
focused along the coast and just inland over the southern third of
of the forecast area by late this morning or the early afternoon.

A large upper low is centered over the Carolina`s early this
morning, with our forecast area situated in the base of the
associated broad upper trough. Models indicate that this upper air
pattern will change little during the near term period (through
Wednesday). At the surface, a quasi-stationary front remains draped
generally west to east just offshore over the Gulf south of the
MS/AL/NWFL coast. This boundary will remain along our coastal areas
through Wednesday, providing a low level focus for showers and
storms. Combination of this boundary and daytime heating and a weak
sea breeze moving inland this afternoon will be enough for the
development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms again
this afternoon, mainly over our coastal counties (along the I-10
corridor) where PoPs will be highest (40 to 50 percent) but at least
a 30 percent chance over most of the southern half of our forecast
area. No severe storms are expected, although a few storms with
strong gusty winds can`t be ruled out.  The bigger concern will be
the possibility for isolated, brief periods of heavy rainfall (with
associated flash flood potential) with any of the stronger storms.
This potential will be greatest down near the coast, and though not
expected to be widespread WPC does have the western FL panhandle
outlooked with a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall. Any slow
moving or training cells could result in some isolated minor flooding
at times today. A weather repeat is expected tonight and Wednesday,
with mostly marine convection overnight and then isolated to
scattered showers and storms over land areas (mainly coastal
counties) on Wednesday (although there is some indication in the
models that storm coverage will be a little less on Wednesday).
Highs today will generally be in the middle 80s across the entire
area, then perhaps slightly warmer (mid to upper 80s) on Wednesday
with the slightly lower rain chances. Lows tonight should range from
the low to mid 60s up around the Highway 84 corridor and the upper
60s to near 70s over the remainder of the interior portions of the
forecast area, with low to mid 70s along the immediate coast. DS/12

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 445 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

An upper level trough will continue to extend along the Eastern
Seaboard through the rest of the work week with an upper ridge
lingering over the south central US and into portions of the
Lower Mississippi Valley. This pattern places the local area
within a northwesterly to northerly flow during this time. Drier
air will filter into the area from the north with PWATs likely to
be 1.5 inches or less through the rest of the week. This drier
air along with the lack of forcing will result in dry conditions.
Over the weekend, the upper level ridge amplifies and builds
further east into much of the Southeastern US which will push the
upper trough out into the western Atlantic. Increasing subsidence
across the area will maintain the dry conditions through the rest
of the period. High temperatures will generally reach into the
middle and upper 80s each day. Saturday is currently looking like
the warmest day in the period where we could see some locations
reach into the lower 90s. Overnight lows range from the lower 60s
well inland to the lower 70s at the beaches. /14

MARINE...
Issued at 445 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

A generally light and somewhat variable wind pattern
is expected to continue through Wednesday as a surface front lingers
over the area. The front sinks south by Wednesday night with a more
established offshore flow setting up by Thursday and Friday. A more
east to southeasterly flow returns by the weekend. Winds and seas
will be higher near isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms,
otherwise no significant hazards for small craft through the
remainder of the week and into the early part of the weekend. DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      85  70  88  68  90  68  90  69 /  50  10  20  10  10   0   0   0
Pensacola   84  73  86  72  88  73  89  74 /  40  10  20   0  10   0   0   0
Destin      85  74  86  73  88  74  89  74 /  50  20  20   0  10   0   0   0
Evergreen   85  67  89  65  90  67  92  65 /  40   0  20   0  10   0   0   0
Waynesboro  84  66  88  63  89  65  89  64 /  40   0  10   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      85  65  88  64  88  66  89  65 /  20   0  10   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   85  68  88  67  90  68  91  68 /  50  20  30  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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