Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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235 FXUS64 KMOB 152058 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 358 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 358 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Upper level ridging continues to extend from the northern Gulf Coast into the Tennessee Valley region this afternoon. A broad surface ridge of high pressure is also located across much of the eastern CONUS. A seabreeze circulation has developed near coastal portions of our forecast area this afternoon and satellite imagery shows cumulus congesting along this feature as of 3 PM CDT. A very isolated shower or thunderstorm could develop in the vicinity of the western FL panhandle through late this afternoon, but the chance of measurable precipitation looks to be less than 15%. Hot temperatures otherwise continue underneath the ridge axis with readings mostly in the mid 90s over inland locations and around 90 along the coast as of 3 PM. Dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 inland and in the 70s along the immediate coast are supporting heat index values in the upper 90s to around 104 degrees. The upper level ridge axis will slowly move eastward and will gradually strengthen over northern Georgia and into the Carolinas on Sunday. A region of enhanced moisture in association with an inverted trough axis extending across the southwestern and southern Gulf is expected to lift northward into much of our forecast area along the southwestern periphery of the building ridge on Sunday. Precipitable water values will increase to around or a little above 2 inches across coastal portions of the CWA. We expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially from late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. Rainfall amounts are generally forecast to average between .25" and .5" on Sunday but locally heavier rainfall amounts in excess of 1-2" could quickly fall over a few locations, especially near the coast. Associated runoff could result in minor/nuisance flooding over a few locations Sunday. Lows tonight will be warm in the lower to mid 70s inland and in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees along the immediate coast. High temperatures are forecast to range in the lower to mid 90s again over inland locations and in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees along the immediate coast. Increasing southeasterly flow will result in a HIGH rip current risk Sunday into the early part of next week. /21 && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 358 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Wetter and relatively cooler weather is the story for the short term period. Upper ridging remains in place across the eastern CONUS with deep layer southerly to southeasterly flow established across the forecast area. The Central American Gyre (CAG) remains in place across the Yucatan into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, and with the aforementioned prevailing deep layer southerlies it can be expected that a large plume of deep moisture will advect into the region Sunday through Tuesday from the CAG. Most model guidance brings in PWAT values upwards of 2 to 2.25 inches which will foster the potential for very heavy rainfall in any storms. Given this and subtle disturbances moving into the area anticipate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms during the period with greatest chances west of the I-65 corridor, particularly Monday. Ridging becomes a little more dominant across the area Tuesday which will allow for better precipitation chances to slide west of the area, however still expect scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage during the period. With regard to the heavy rain potential, it looks like most areas over the interior will have rainfall totals between a half inch to an inch while locations across southeastern MS into southwestern AL have the potential for several inches. Given these rainfall totals will occur over the course of several days, it doesn`t appear there will be a substantial flash flood threat at this time. Of course, all it takes is several hours of training thunderstorms to cause problems and rack up the rainfall totals quickly so we will continue to monitor things as we move forward in time. Temperatures will be relatively cooler across the area, topping out in the upper 80`s to lower 90`s for the afternoon hours Monday and Tuesday while overnight lows only fall into the lower to middle 70`s. A High risk for rip currents will remain in effect through Tuesday night. MM/25 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 358 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Upper ridging remains parked across the eastern U.S. to round out the week. As our plume of tropical moisture gradually shifts to the west we should see a return to a more typical diurnal cycle for showers and storms with generally isolated to perhaps scattered coverage focused nearer the coastal counties in association with the seabreeze boundary. In a somewhat interesting trend the past 24 hours a tropical wave over the southwestern Atlantic may push west underneath the upper ridging into the southeastern U.S. by the end of the week. There is considerable variability on the track and strength of the feature, but depending on its eventual path it may provide for an increase in rain and thunderstorm chances late week. Expect a return to hot conditions as highs warm back into the lower to middle 90`s by late week into the weekend while lows remain lower to middle 70`s most nights. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 358 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A light to moderate southeasterly flow will become established over the marine area tonight and will persist through the remainder of the weekend. A moderate to strong southeasterly flow along with building seas is anticipated Monday through Wednesday as the gradient increases between low pressure developing over the southwestern Gulf and high pressure across the Atlantic. Small Craft Advisories may become necessary during the early to middle part of next week. /21 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 75 89 74 86 74 87 75 90 / 0 80 60 80 40 60 30 40 Pensacola 78 88 77 88 77 89 77 90 / 0 80 60 70 40 50 30 40 Destin 79 88 78 89 78 90 77 90 / 10 80 50 60 40 40 30 30 Evergreen 71 93 71 90 71 91 71 91 / 10 60 30 50 20 30 10 20 Waynesboro 72 94 72 85 71 87 71 90 / 10 60 40 70 30 40 20 20 Camden 72 94 72 90 72 90 73 90 / 10 40 20 40 10 20 10 10 Crestview 72 92 71 93 72 92 71 93 / 10 70 30 50 20 30 10 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Wednesday morning for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Wednesday morning for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob