Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
707 FXUS64 KMOB 252117 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 417 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 417 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows an upper level low near the borders of Kansas/Arkansas/Tennessee/Kentucky. This upper low will continue to linger over the Middle Mississippi Valley through Thursday before eventually diving into the Deep South late Thursday night and early Friday morning. The progression of this upper low will steer Hurricane Helene into the Big Bend region of Florida as a major hurricane Thursday evening before they phase into one large upper level feature over the Southeast on Friday. Down in the lower levels, a subtle surface boundary is currently draped across southwest Alabama and southeast Mississippi. This front will continue to move through western portions of the area through this afternoon before stalling along the I-65 corridor this evening. Drier air is expected to filter into southeast Mississippi and portions of southwest Alabama behind the front with PWATs likely falling to around 1.25-1.5 inches tonight. This should help to keep mostly dry conditions in place overnight and into Thursday for these areas. Along and east of the surface front, there will be better deep layer moisture in place as Hurricane Helene lifts northward across the eastern Gulf. PWATs over south central Alabama, portions of southwest Alabama, and the northwest Florida Panhandle will range from 1.5 to 2.3 inches through Thursday. This moisture combined with the weak surface boundary may help to keep a few lingering showers and storms overnight in areas along and east of I-65. Rain chances will begin to increase again on Thursday morning in these same areas as peripheral bands from Helene move inland. With a rather tight moisture gradient in place across the area, we expect numerous to widespread showers in storms to move inland across the eastern half of the area with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible across far southwest Alabama. We will need to monitor the activity on Thursday as these showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers which could lead to localized flood concerns especially in areas where storms repeatedly move over the same areas. Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are anticipated across south central Alabama and northwest Florida, with locally higher totals possible. In addition to the rainfall, we will also see wind and beach hazards across parts of the area given the large extent of Hurricane Helene. We`ll go into more detail on each of these hazards below. .Wind Advisory. Winds will begin to increase as Helene approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast. .Beach Hazards: Long period swell packets will approach our entire coastline late tonight and hit the beaches early Thursday morning. Therefore, a High Surf Warning is now in effect from 6 AM Thursday to noon CDT Friday for all our surf zones where large breaking waves of 6 to 10 feet are expected. Wave runup should also result in water levels of 1 to 2 feet above normally dry ground. If higher values are expected, we may need to issue a Coastal Flood Advisory. However, northerly winds will help to negate any impacts for our bays, with the impacts mainly occurring along the immediate coastal sections due to the wave runup. In addition, a High Rip Current Risk remains in effect from 9 PM CDT this evening through late Friday night. Everyone should remain out of the water due to life- threatening surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure. For Thursday night, conditions will quickly dry out from the southwest to northeast as Hurricane Helene lifts across Georgia and much drier air filters into the region. Temperatures Thursday night will be rather pleasant with lows falling into the lower 60s inland with middle and upper 60s further south. /14 && SHORT AND EXTENDED TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 417 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 The upper level low gradually weakens and lifts northeast into the Ohio Valley by early next week. A dry airmass remains through much of the area with only very isolated showers possible over the weekend. A reinforcing shot of drier air is possible late in the period. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s inland to mid and upper 90s near the coast. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 417 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Tropical Storm Helene is expected to strengthen to near hurricane strength when it reaches the northwestern Caribbean Wednesday morning. Further intensification is expected and this system is likely to become a major hurricane before approaching the northeastern Gulf Coast Thursday evening. Significantly higher seas and strengthening winds are expected over the marine area as a result. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida 0-60 nm Gulf waters. We may need to include a Small Craft Advisory for the remainder of the marine area beginning late Wednesday night which continues until seas subside Friday morning. Please see the National Hurricane Center for additional information. Winds and seas are expected to gradually subside Friday into Friday night with a moderate westerly to southwesterly flow prevailing through the weekend. /14 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 70 83 65 83 65 87 63 87 / 30 30 10 10 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 72 79 69 82 70 85 70 86 / 70 70 30 10 0 0 0 10 Destin 73 80 70 83 73 85 71 85 / 80 80 50 10 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 68 80 63 83 63 85 61 86 / 60 80 50 10 0 0 0 10 Waynesboro 65 82 62 81 62 84 61 84 / 20 20 10 10 10 0 0 0 Camden 66 76 62 79 63 82 60 82 / 40 60 40 20 0 0 0 0 Crestview 70 78 64 84 64 86 64 87 / 80 80 50 10 0 10 0 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Wind Advisory from noon Thursday to midnight CDT Thursday night for ALZ060-263>266. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 1 PM CDT Friday for ALZ263>266. High Rip Current Risk from 9 PM CDT this evening through late Friday night for ALZ265-266. High Surf Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 1 PM CDT Friday for ALZ265-266. FL...Wind Advisory from noon Thursday to midnight CDT Thursday night for FLZ201>206. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 1 PM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206. High Rip Current Risk from 9 PM CDT this evening through late Friday night for FLZ202-204-206. High Surf Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 1 PM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 1 PM CDT Friday for GMZ630>635-650. Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ636-655-670-675. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob