Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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677 FXUS64 KMOB 191248 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 748 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 748 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. DS/12 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 440 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 440 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 An upper trof along the eastern seaboard today will move off into the western Atlantic tonight and Friday while upper ridging begins to build into our area from the west. A weak and diffuse surface trof just offshore or over the immediate coastal areas may allow for a VERY isolated shower today, but not nearly enough of a signal for this to include any PoP today. This surface boundary washes out tonight and Friday, and with the ridging building aloft we don`t expect any PoP tonight or Friday either. Deep layer dry air will continue over the region through the near term. With the ridging aloft and dry airmass, we expect daytime high temperatures to heat up into the upper 80s and lower 90s both today and Friday (which is about 4 to 7 degrees above normal high temps). Lows tonight will range from the mid and upper 60s over most inland areas to the low to mid 70s at the coast. DS/12 SHORT and LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 440 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Upper-level ridging over the south central US is expected to shift eastward throughout the extended period. This will allow for northeasterly flow aloft at the start of the period to become more light and variable by Sunday and into Monday as the ridge moves overhead. At the surface, an expansive high pressure over the Appalachians will also remain in control through Monday. Subsidence from the deep-layer ridging in place, along with lower moisture values (PWAT values around 1.1 to 1.5 inches) should keep rain out of the forecast through, at least, Monday. Highs will generally range from the upper 80s along the coast to the low to mid 90s inland. Lows will be in the upper 60s inland to the low to mid 70s along the coast. By Tuesday and Wednesday, troughing should dig into the central US and move into the Great Lakes region, helping to weaken the ridge. There are, however, some model discrepancies with the overall upper- level pattern by this time. One possible scenario (suggested by the ECMWF and ICON) shows a decently strong cut-off low breaking away from the main trough on Tuesday over the central US and pushing southward towards the Desert Southwest. This solution results in a weaker trough moving across the Great Lakes, leading to the ridge lingering overhead longer. The other scenario shows a weaker cutoff low (GFS solution) or does not even show one forming at all (CMC solution). This would lead to a stronger trough overall, helping to weaken and shove the ridge further to the east, leading to a more southwesterly flow pattern aloft. Ultimately, as we look past the scope of this extended term forecast, these features and solutions will likely play a huge role on the eventual trajectory of a low pressure system that will potentially develop over the southern Gulf of Mexico midweek. We will continue to monitor these trends closely over the coming days. /96 MARINE... Issued at 440 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 A light, mostly offshore flow is expected today through Friday night, with a more east to southeasterly flow expected to develop on Saturday and continue into late Monday. Little change in seas through the period. No expected hazards to small craft through the weekend and into the early part of next week, but winds and seas will likely be increasing by midweek and especially by late week, possibly posing a hazard to small craft by mid to late week as low pressure develops over the Gulf. DS/12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 90 70 91 70 92 70 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 90 73 90 73 90 73 89 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 89 74 90 75 89 74 88 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 90 68 91 68 93 68 92 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 90 67 91 68 93 69 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 91 67 92 67 93 68 92 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 92 68 92 67 93 68 92 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob