053
FXUS64 KMOB 201138
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
638 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024


VFR conditions will generally prevail across the region through
the next 24 hours. The exceptions being isolated to scattered
showers and a few storms that will develop across mainly southern
portions of our area this afternoon. Easterly winds will continue
through the period, elevated between 10-15 knots with occasional
higher gusts. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 450 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday Night)
Issued at 450 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Very little change to the overall pattern as our forecast area
remains located in between Tropical Storm Alberto making landfall
in northeast Mexico and a large, elongated upper ridge extending
from the western Atlantic to west Texas. As the remnants of
Alberto moves westward across Mexico, the upper ridge will slowly
sag southward through the near term. Rain chances across the
southern half of our forecast area will be higher today compared
to yesterday as we anticipate mainly scattered showers along with
a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon through mid-
evening as another plume of increased moisture spreads from east
to west. Dry conditions will resume from mid-evening through
Friday night, with the exception of a few showers and possibly a
thunderstorm across portions of the western Florida Panhandle
Friday afternoon into early evening.

Generally kept temperatures trended in line with the NBM, with
highs this afternoon around normal ranging from 87 to 92 degrees.
Highs on Friday will be slightly above normal ranging from 90 to
95 degrees. Lows tonight and Friday night will continue to be
slightly above normal ranging from 67 to 72 degrees inland areas
and from 72 to 77 degrees closer to the coast. Barrier islands
should see lows only dropping into the upper 70s.

Coastal hazards: A few reports of wave runup/minor coastal
flooding were received yesterday along the west end of Dauphin
Island (Bienville Blvd) and near I-10 ramps in northern Mobile Bay
around times of high tide courtesy of the persistent easterly
flow. With similar high tides again today, have maintained a
Coastal Flood Advisory around times of high tide from 8 AM TO 2 PM
for Mobile Bay, mainly for the I-10 ramps/Causeway areas and
along the west end of Dauphin Island and possibly Shell Belt/Coden
Belt Rd areas in far southern Mobile County. Dangerous surf with
large breaking waves up to 5-7 feet will continue to impact area
beaches through 6 PM this evening. A HIGH rip current risk also
continues through Friday night. /22

SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Saturday night)
Issued at 450 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

An elongated upper level ridge continues to stretch across the
southern half of the US on Saturday. While down at the surface, a
weakening trough axis is expected to slide underneath the ridge
and move northwestward across the Florida Panhandle and into the
Southeastern US. A slug of increased moisture is expected to
accompany this surface trough which will bring the potential for
some isolated to scattered showers and storms to the area on
Saturday afternoon. Right now, the better coverage (about 30-40%)
for convection will be over portions of south central Alabama and
the Florida Panhandle given their proximity to the surface trough.
Temperatures will be hot outside of any storms given the
subsidence aloft. High temperatures will top out in the lower to
middle 90s Saturday afternoon with a few spots in southeast
Mississippi potentially reaching into the upper 90s given the
slightly higher heights and lower rain chances in those areas. It
will feel even hotter though with heat index values expected to
reach to around 100-106 degrees. Low temperatures Saturday night
range from the lower 70s well inland to the upper 70s and around
80 degrees along the coast. The rip current risk becomes moderate
at all area beaches on Saturday. /14

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 450 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Upper level ridging begins to retreat westward on Sunday as a
northern stream shortwave sweeps across the Great Lakes region. As
we head into early next week, the upper ridging becomes centered
over the Desert Southwest with broad upper troughing taking place
over the eastern US. This will result in a northwesterly flow
pattern aloft over the local area. Deep layer moisture will
increase during the period as persistent southwesterly to
southerly flow continues to usher in rich, Gulf moisture. This
combination of the departing ridge aloft and deep layer moisture
and will result in daily chances for showers and storms though the
period with coverage likely peaking during the afternoon and
evening hours. The lowest PoPs in the period are currently
expected on Sunday given that the ridge and its associated
subsidence will still have some influence over the local area.
Rain chances will gradually become more scattered to numerous
during the early to middle parts of next week as heights fall
across the region. Outside of any storms, temperatures will be hot
with areas reaching into the 90s each afternoon. These hot
temperatures combined with increasing moisture in the boundary
layer will result in heat index values approaching Heat Advisory
criteria especially on Sunday and Monday. Lows overnight will
range from the lower 70s inland to the upper 70s at the beaches.
/14

MARINE...
Issued at 450 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Hazardous conditions for Small craft will persist today as a
moderate to strong easterly flow remains in response to the
pressure gradient between Tropical Storm Alberto making landfall
in northeast Mexico and a large area of high pressure over the
southeast. Seas will range from 5 to 8 feet over the Gulf,
occasionally to 10 feet well offshore, with waves near 2 feet in
bays and waterways. Winds and seas will gradually diminish tonight
into Saturday before winds return to a more southerly to
southwesterly flow over the weekend into early next week. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      91  72  93  72  93  75  93  76 /  20  20  10  10  20  10  30  10
Pensacola   90  75  93  75  91  77  91  79 /  50  30  10  20  30  10  40  20
Destin      90  75  92  78  90  80  90  80 /  60  20  20  30  30  20  40  20
Evergreen   90  67  93  70  94  72  95  73 /  30  20  10  10  40  10  30  10
Waynesboro  91  69  94  69  96  72  98  74 /  10  10   0   0  20   0  20  10
Camden      89  68  92  69  93  72  96  73 /  10  10   0   0  20   0  20  10
Crestview   93  68  95  71  94  72  95  74 /  50  20  20  20  40  10  40  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for
     ALZ263>265.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ650-
     655-670-675.

&&

$$

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