650
FXUS64 KMOB 212105
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
405 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 405 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Big bubble no trouble for now as dry conditions persist through
the forecast period. High pressure over central Texas will
continue to nose into the deep south brining dry northerly flow
across the area. At the surface a front has pushed deep into the
central Gulf. All this will lead dry seasonable conditions across
the area. With deep dry air in place, the only real adjustments
made were to lower afternoon dewpoints and bump high temperatures
up a degree or two as deep vertical mixing seems likely. Rain
chances will remain near zero for the time being. BB/03

&&

SHORT and LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 441 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Dry and warm conditions continue through Tuesday as upper level
ridging remains over the region. The ridge begins to break down
Tuesday into Wednesday as an upper trough begins to dig across the
plains. This will allow rain chances to increase by the middle of
the week. Then all eyes turn toward the southern Gulf where an
area of low pressure is expected to be located by Wednesday
afternoon. The low is expected to move northward into the break
between the upper trough to the west and the ridge to the east.
The strength of the ridge and trough will ultimately play a
deciding role is the eventual track of the system. Until there is
an actually low center to track and increased upper air data over
the Gulf and southeastern US, model tracks will continue to
struggle. Therefore, the main idea here is to continue to monitor
forecast updates and make sure you have a plan in place. /13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 405 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Light to occasionally moderate northeasterly winds become
southeasterly this afternoon, with an easterly to southeasterly flow
following through Wednesday. Seas begin to build Wednesday through
Thursday as an area of low pressure develops in the Gulf. We will
closely monitor the progression of this low pressure as it will
likely result in hazardous conditions for small craft. BB/03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  94  69  91  71  90  73  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  20  10  40
Pensacola   73  92  73  90  74  88  76  87 /   0   0   0   0   0  20  10  40
Destin      75  91  75  90  75  88  75  87 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  10  30
Evergreen   68  96  67  95  69  93  70  91 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  10  30
Waynesboro  69  95  67  93  67  91  68  89 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  10  30
Camden      69  95  69  93  70  91  70  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10  30
Crestview   68  95  66  93  69  92  70  90 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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