Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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708 FXUS64 KMOB 170945 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 445 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Wednesday) Issued at 445 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 A lot of convection ongoing over the marine area early this morning. Seeing some weak rotation in a number of the stronger storms, and several useful waterspout parameters (Sfc Vorticity/Sfc- 3km MLCAPE Parameter Field and the None-Supercell Tornado Composite Index) suggest a high probability of waterspouts over the marine area again today (at least for this morning, although the large Dauphin Island waterspout yesterday occurred in the late afternoon hours and favorable parameters may persist well into the day again today). Most of the CAM`s do suggest that the convective activity will decrease over the marine area today however, and become more focused along the coast and just inland over the southern third of of the forecast area by late this morning or the early afternoon. A large upper low is centered over the Carolina`s early this morning, with our forecast area situated in the base of the associated broad upper trough. Models indicate that this upper air pattern will change little during the near term period (through Wednesday). At the surface, a quasi-stationary front remains draped generally west to east just offshore over the Gulf south of the MS/AL/NWFL coast. This boundary will remain along our coastal areas through Wednesday, providing a low level focus for showers and storms. Combination of this boundary and daytime heating and a weak sea breeze moving inland this afternoon will be enough for the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms again this afternoon, mainly over our coastal counties (along the I-10 corridor) where PoPs will be highest (40 to 50 percent) but at least a 30 percent chance over most of the southern half of our forecast area. No severe storms are expected, although a few storms with strong gusty winds can`t be ruled out. The bigger concern will be the possibility for isolated, brief periods of heavy rainfall (with associated flash flood potential) with any of the stronger storms. This potential will be greatest down near the coast, and though not expected to be widespread WPC does have the western FL panhandle outlooked with a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall. Any slow moving or training cells could result in some isolated minor flooding at times today. A weather repeat is expected tonight and Wednesday, with mostly marine convection overnight and then isolated to scattered showers and storms over land areas (mainly coastal counties) on Wednesday (although there is some indication in the models that storm coverage will be a little less on Wednesday). Highs today will generally be in the middle 80s across the entire area, then perhaps slightly warmer (mid to upper 80s) on Wednesday with the slightly lower rain chances. Lows tonight should range from the low to mid 60s up around the Highway 84 corridor and the upper 60s to near 70s over the remainder of the interior portions of the forecast area, with low to mid 70s along the immediate coast. DS/12 && .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 445 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 An upper level trough will continue to extend along the Eastern Seaboard through the rest of the work week with an upper ridge lingering over the south central US and into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. This pattern places the local area within a northwesterly to northerly flow during this time. Drier air will filter into the area from the north with PWATs likely to be 1.5 inches or less through the rest of the week. This drier air along with the lack of forcing will result in dry conditions. Over the weekend, the upper level ridge amplifies and builds further east into much of the Southeastern US which will push the upper trough out into the western Atlantic. Increasing subsidence across the area will maintain the dry conditions through the rest of the period. High temperatures will generally reach into the middle and upper 80s each day. Saturday is currently looking like the warmest day in the period where we could see some locations reach into the lower 90s. Overnight lows range from the lower 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the beaches. /14 && .MARINE... Issued at 445 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 A generally light and somewhat variable wind pattern is expected to continue through Wednesday as a surface front lingers over the area. The front sinks south by Wednesday night with a more established offshore flow setting up by Thursday and Friday. A more east to southeasterly flow returns by the weekend. Winds and seas will be higher near isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, otherwise no significant hazards for small craft through the remainder of the week and into the early part of the weekend. DS/12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 85 70 88 68 90 68 90 69 / 50 10 20 10 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 84 73 86 72 88 73 89 74 / 40 10 20 0 10 0 0 0 Destin 85 74 86 73 88 74 89 74 / 50 20 20 0 10 0 0 0 Evergreen 85 67 89 65 90 67 92 65 / 40 0 20 0 10 0 0 0 Waynesboro 84 66 88 63 89 65 89 64 / 40 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 85 65 88 64 88 66 89 65 / 20 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 85 68 88 67 90 68 91 68 / 50 20 30 10 10 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob