809
FXUS64 KMOB 211147
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
647 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Primarily a wind shift forecast as northeasterly winds around 10
knots become southeasterly to southerly along the coast this
afternoon as a sea-breeze pushes inland. Winds north of the sea-
breeze will remain northeasterly to easterly at 5 to 10 knots.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with FEW-SCT cumulus clouds
around 5000 feet expected this afternoon after the BKN ceiling at
7000 feet over southeast MS and Mobile County AL clears off to
the east by 18z. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 450 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday Night)
Issued at 450 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The large, elongated upper ridge extending from the western
Atlantic to New Mexico will continue to slowly sag southward
through Saturday afternoon, and then begin to retrograde westward
Saturday night. Other then a few showers and possibly a storm or
two across portions of south central Alabama and the western
Florida Panhandle late Saturday afternoon induced by a sea-breeze,
dry weather conditions will prevail through the period.

High temperatures this afternoon will be slightly above normal
ranging from 90 to 95 degrees. Warmer highs are expected Saturday
in the mid to upper 90s (3-8 degrees above normal), with heat
indices across much of the area ranging from 100 to 105 degrees.
Lows tonight will continue to be slightly above normal ranging
from 67 to 72 degrees inland areas and from 72 to 77 degrees
closer to the coast. Barrier islands should see lows only dropping
into the upper 70s. Warmer lows are expected Saturday night in
the low to mid 70s, or 3-8 degrees above normal. Barrier islands
should see lows only dropping to around 80 degrees. A HIGH risk of
rip currents continues through tonight, followed by a Moderate
risk through the remainder of the period. /22

SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Sunday night)
Issued at 450 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Upper level ridging will gradually retreat westward through Sunday
night as a northern stream shortwave sweeps across the Great Lakes
region and a southern stream shortwave meanders along the
southeastern Seaboard. Down at the surface, a weakening trough
axis associated with the southern stream trough will linger over
southern Georgia and northern Florida on Sunday. Onshore flow is
expected to develop as we head later into the weekend and these
southerly winds will gradually increase deep layer moisture (PWATs
rising to around 1.5-1.8 inches) across the area by Sunday
afternoon. This moisture combined with the surface trough to our
east could help to initiate an isolated shower or storm over
portions of south central Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Sunday
afternoon, but most areas will otherwise remain dry thanks to the
departing upper ridge and its associated subsidence.

The bigger story on Sunday will be the heat as high temperatures
are currently forecast to climb into the middle and upper 90s.
Increasing boundary layer moisture will also make it feel even
hotter with heat index values expected to reach 100-105 degrees.
Overnight lows won`t provide much in terms of relief with
temperatures only falling into the middle and upper 70s. /14

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 450 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The two aforementioned shortwaves will merge into a longwave
trough extending along the Eastern Seaboard on Monday. At the same
time, the upper ridging that has been over the area shifts out
over the Desert Southwest and amplifies. This pattern will place
the local area within a northwesterly flow pattern through
Tuesday. Persistent onshore flow at the surface along with
increasing moisture and height falls will bring an unsettled
pattern back to the area with daily chances for showers and
storms. The lowest PoPs in the period are currently forecast for
Monday as the ridging continues to exit east. Rain chances will
then become more scattered to numerous on Tuesday. It will be very
hot and humid outside of any convection early next week with high
temperatures expected to reach into the middle and upper 90s.
Heat index values of 105-110 degrees are also forecast and Heat
Advisories will likely be needed for Monday and Tuesday.

By the middle of next week, the troughing moves out over the
Atlantic while a potent shortwave trough pushes across the
Southeastern US. The lower heights and plenty of moisture will
result in numerous showers and storms on Wednesday and Thursday.
The higher rain chances and cloud cover will give way to slightly
cooler ambient temperatures, but the humid conditions will keep
heat index values in the 103-108 degree range on Wednesday and
Thursday. /14

MARINE...
Issued at 450 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

No hazardous impacts expected as easterly winds continue to
decrease this morning, shifting southeasterly in the afternoon.
Winds will briefly become light and variable tonight through
Saturday afternoon, followed by a light southwesterly to westerly
flow Saturday night toward the middle of next week. Seas will
slowly subside through Saturday. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      93  71  95  74  95  76  96  76 /   0   0  10   0  10   0  30  20
Pensacola   93  74  93  77  93  79  94  80 /   0   0  10  10  20  10  40  30
Destin      92  78  92  80  91  80  91  80 /   0  10  20  10  20  10  40  30
Evergreen   94  68  96  71  97  74  96  73 /   0   0  10   0  20  10  40  20
Waynesboro  94  69  98  72  98  74  97  74 /   0   0  10   0  10   0  30  20
Camden      91  68  95  72  96  74  95  73 /   0   0  10   0  10  10  40  20
Crestview   96  69  98  72  97  74  97  74 /   0   0  20  10  20  10  50  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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