356
AWUS01 KWNH 272220
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-280215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0507
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
619 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Areas affected...Central and Eastern New Mexico & Portions of the
Southern Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272218Z - 280215Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding possible as storms that are forming along
the dry line in eastern New Mexico train along that line into
flood sensitive areas.

DISCUSSION...Storms developing along the dry line from the
southeastern corner of Colorado southwestward into central New
Mexico are training along the dry line this afternoon. While so
far rates have largely stayed at or below 1 inch per hour with the
storms, as they slowly move over more flood sensitive areas,
particularly in northeastern New Mexico due to recent rainfall,
flash flooding will be possible. In addition, any storms that move
over burn scars in the area may also pose a flash flooding threat.
Southerly flow of 15-25 kts at 850 mb will continue to feed
moisture and instability into the storms as local maxima of SBCAPE
as high as 2,000 J/kg analyzed by SPC Mesoanalysis advects
northward into the storms.

Similar flash flooding sensitivity due to the Sacramento Mountains
and burn scars in and around those mountains may also pose a flash
flooding threat into this evening as storms continue to form and
only very slowly move into the area across southern New Mexico.

FFGs across the flood sensitive portions of northeast New Mexico
are between 1 and 1.5 inches per hour, a rate that is probable
with the stronger storms.

CAMs guidance suggests the storms will continue consolidating into
linear segments with localized higher rainfall rates to 1.5 inches
per hour through this evening.

Wegman

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...EPZ...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37660218 37590158 37310118 36480168 35120301
            33600429 32710543 32980644 33170749 33830716
            34220696 34960736 35070687 35180581 35260561
            36130482 37390261