229
AWUS01 KWNH 172306
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-180500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1031
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
706 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Virginia and Northeast North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 172302Z - 180500Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rain will continue to drift northwest from the
northern Outer Banks into or through the Hampton Roads metro area
this evening. Considerable flash flooding is possible given the
high rainfall rates and particularly slow motion.

DISCUSSION...Convection continues to redevelop north of a warm
front extending east near the Albemarle Sound in northeast NC.
This has resulted in considerable flash flooding in the northern
outer banks with 5-8" estimated from KAKQ between Duck and Corolla
today. Rainfall rates of 2-2.5" have been estimated from KAKQ
around Corolla between 22Z and 23Z. This activity is drifting
north and has a reasonable chance of continuing at a similar
intensity farther north over Virginia Beach and the Hampton Roads
metro area.

A tropically-sourced plume of moisture, with PW of 2.1" per SPC
RAP mesoanalysis is north of the warm front and shifting into the
Virginia Capes on convergent low level flow. Sufficient
instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) should continue to support hourly
rainfall of 2-3"/hr. FFG is generally 1.5-2"/hr over Virginia
Beach given the around 2" of rain that fell there earlier today.
Recent HRRR runs have been too progressive with this activity
shifting northeast, but the NW direction of motion ahead of the
warm front that is slowly drifting north is reasonable. Given the
potential for these heavy rates to cross the vulnerable Hampton
Roads metro area, the flash flood threat is considered likely for
this evening.


Jackson

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37387681 37387625 37257574 36587560 35807538
            36257625 36597675 37037716