925
AWUS01 KWNH 150839
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-151435-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0442
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
438 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Areas affected...northeastern KS, southeastern NE, southwestern
IA, northwestern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150837Z - 151435Z

SUMMARY...The potential for training and 1-2 in/hr rates may
produce localized flash flooding across portions of the middle
Missouri River Valley through the morning hours. Rainfall maxima
of 2-4 inches will be possible through 15Z.

DISCUSSION...08Z radar and infrared satellite imagery showed a
trailing stratiform MCS tracking east along the KS/NE border with
a forward motion between 25-30 kt, though some recent slowing has
occurred along the southern flank of the leading edge into
northern KS over the past 1-2 hours. Cloud tops across northern NE
have been warming due to a lack of instability but farther south,
a reservoir of moderately strong instability resided over eastern
KS with 2000 to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE via the 08Z SPC mesoanalysis. The
MCS was located out ahead of a mid-level shortwave over the
central High Plains with the downstream upper level ridge axis
centered over eastern NE/KS, providing enhanced diffluence aloft.

Shear and instability parameters appear to be favorable for
maintaining the MCS as it tracks toward the east over the next 3-6
hours, and a 20-30 kt 850 mb jet is forecast by the RAP to
maintain over eastern KS through 15Z (slight weakening from
current values per VAD wind data). 850 mb winds are forecast to
become fairly aligned with the 850-300 mb mean layer wind
supporting weak to backward propagating Corfidi vectors. Should
the southern flank of the squall line continue to slow its
eastward progress, the potential for training and possible back
building of thunderstorms will pose a threat for flash flooding
given the available instability to the south. 1-2 in/hr rainfall
rates will be possible along with localized maxima of 2-4 inches
through 14 or 15Z.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   42119615 41769517 41049444 40459408 39979402
            39189434 38779498 38659641 39059715 40539663
            41749680