110
AWUS01 KWNH 262239
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-270000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0503...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
638 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Corrected for Graphic

Areas affected...Northern Pennsylvania

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261936Z - 270000Z

SUMMARY...INTENSIFYING LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN LA
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OVER SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN LA
WHERE FFG ARE RATHER LOW.

DISCUSSION...RECENT IR SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WHICH SPENT THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX HAS BEGUN TO
INTENSIFY. CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED DRAMATICALLY IN THE PAST FEW
IMAGES WITH AN INCREASE IN POSITIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES. ADDITIONALLY...ONE-HOUR RAINFALL RATES HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY
INCREASED WITH BEAUMONT TX SEEING 2.33 INCHES BETWEEN 06-07Z AS
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CROSSED THE REGION. EXPECTATIONS ARE
THAT 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL RATES SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER A MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS
DOWNSTREAM. MOREOVER...IT WAS NOTED IN THE 06Z RAP AND
OBSERVATIONAL DATA THAT A STRONG THETA-E GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS ACTIVITY SO MUCH OF THE FORECAST IS BASED ON REMOTE SENSING
TRENDS AND SURFACE DATA. GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE QUITE WET
OVER THIS REGION OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO A FLASH FLOODING EVENT.


RUBIN-OSTER

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   42268002 42227946 42037905 42027773 41937667
            41757613 41087629 40917685 41147886 41278049
            41578089 41988091