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Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
207 AWUS01 KWNH 282354 FFGMPD COZ000-290300- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0510 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 753 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Areas affected...Northern Colorado Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 282352Z - 290300Z SUMMARY...Training storms may cause localized flash flooding in the terrain across Northern Colorado into this evening. DISCUSSION... Training storms have developed across northern Colorado in response to a strong shortwave tracking across Wyoming. Unidirectional westerly flow, the strong shortwave, the right entrance region of the jet, and still above normal levels of atmospheric moisture with PWATs between 3/4 and 1 inch all are supporting the storms. While the heaviest rains have been sporadic, this has likely been due to the interaction with the terrain. Soil moisture levels have been similarly sporadic based on NASA sport soil moisture imagery, but several spots where the training storms have set up have seen heavy rain in recent days. SPC Mesoanalysis shows SBCape values between 1,000 and 2,000 J/kg, which will support the continuation of the storms. A front draped to the north of the storms over far southern Wyoming is acting as a very effective northern gradient for the convection, as there`s a sharp gradient to the north of the front with much lower atmospheric moisture and almost no instability. This front may be helping to focus the convection across this corridor of northern Colorado. The storms are expected to continue for the next few hours, with gradually decreasing strength and coverage over this region following sunset, which should result in decreasing instability as well as departing forcing. HRRR guidance shows the storms will significantly diminish in coverage after 03Z/9pm MDT. Flash flooding should remain widely scattered since the storm coverage is also widely scattered, and is most likely in areas where redeveloping and training cells result in multiple rounds of heavy rain over flood sensitive areas. Wegman ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOU...GJT...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 40830432 40330397 40160493 39720588 39000644 38490796 38970838 39610858 40270855 40650752 40820544