518
AWUS01 KWNH 292323
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-300522-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0514
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
722 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Areas affected...North-Central to Northeast OK...Southeast
KS...Central/Southern MO...Far Northern AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 292322Z - 300522Z

SUMMARY...Locally slow-moving clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms will organize and tend to expand in coverage going
into the evening hours. Isolated to widely scattered instances of
flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows strong
cold-topped convection developing and gradually expanding in
coverage across areas of southeast KS and into central MO. The
activity is forming along and just south of a cold front as
multiple waves of low pressure advance east-northeast along it.

A moist and very unstable airmass is in place with MLCAPE values
of 3500 to 4500 J/kg and PWs locally over 2 inches, and this
coupled with at least modest shear and favorable low-level
convergence along the front should yield additional expansion of
convective clusters heading into the evening hours. Initially the
main focus will be on areas of southeast KS and central/southern
MO, but portions of north-central to northeast OK and eventually
far northern AR will likely see the arrival of convection since
the overall southward advance of the cold front coupled with some
localized cold pool activity should allow the convection to lose
some latitude with time.

Rainfall rates with the stronger storms are expected to reach 2 to
2.5 inches/hour, and with slow cell-motions overall, this may
allow for some short-term totals to reach as high as 3 to 5
inches. The 12Z/18Z HREF guidance supports these totals locally,
and suggest some low probabilities (20 to 40 percent) of seeing
3-hour FFG exceedances. Therefore, some isolated to widely
scattered instances of flash flooding may materialize heading into
the evening hours as this convection continues to organize and
expand in coverage.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38839132 38539048 37378989 36199044 36179412
            35679638 35739826 36349854 37429652 37749563
            38069406 38449270