106
FXUS63 KMPX 240851
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
351 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will warm to near 80 by Wednesday and last
  through the weekend with continued dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A line of light showers is making its way across Minnesota early
this morning. The majority of the radar returns are not reaching the
ground, but some stronger showers are ongoing across southern
Minnesota. Rainfall totals will only be a few hundredths of an inch
through the next couple of hours. This shower activity is expected
to diminish through mid morning, making for another day of great
late September weather with highs in the low 70s. Temperatures are
on track to warm through the remainder of the week as ridging builds
in across the central CONUS. Highs in the upper 70s to near 80 with
overnight lows in the 50s are expected through the beginning of
next week.

Rain chances will be hard to come by through the period as we find
ourselves cut off from any meaningful moisture source. While the
weather across the Upper Midwest will be quiet at the surface,
things aloft and the reason we are lacking any moisture are a little
more interesting. Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) Nine is
anticipated to move into the Gulf of Mexico and strengthen over the
next day or two. The trough responsible for our showers this morning
will continue to sag southward, eventually becoming a cutoff low
over the Ozarks. As a result, we find ourselves warm and dry, with
no way for Gulf moisture to be advected northward. This feature will
remain parked over this region as the tropical system continues to
move north towards the Florida Panhandle. The cutoff low and the PTC
will interact and `Fujiwara` around each other, with the cutoff
low absorbing the PTC and sending it north into the Ohio River
Valley and eventually west back toward the Midwest by this
weekend. As the system slowly begins to lift to the north, the
far northern edge of the precip shield may brush portions of
Illinois and Wisconsin. Depending on how far west things
progress, there are some low PoPs across far southeastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin Saturday into Sunday. The
pattern finally progresses by early next week with the ridge
flattening and a trough moving across the Canadian Prairies.
Residual moisture from the aforementioned system will hang
around the Upper Midwest, leading to continued low chances for
PoPs (10-20%) to start the month of October.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR with light winds through the period. These winds will shift
through the day as a boundary passes through. Despite the winds
shifts winds should be light enough the have little aviation
impact. There is a line of very light showers moving across
western Minnesota this morning. This line will continue to
slowly track east through the morning. VFR will continue during
the rain.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind W 5kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 5kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NE 5kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...NDC